279
FXUS61 KPBZ 021707
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
107 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY.
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DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FORECAST FEATURE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL AGAIN OFFER
LITTLE WARM OR MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTING IN A PRETTY SIMILAR
DAY TO WEDNESDAY WITH CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. OUR 12Z SOUNDING
IS VERY DRY WITH A RAPIDLY DECREASING DEW POINT PROFILE UP TO
800 MB. MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE RIDGES SUGGESTS
ANOTHER DAY WITH NOTABLE DEW POINT DROPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 20- 30% RANGE.
THIS EVENING, A LAYER OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A WARMING TREND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- CHANCE FOR FOG SATURDAY MORNING.
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TOMORROW, THE LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SINCE THE WIND WILL NO
LONGER BE COMING OFF THE APPALACHIANS. TOMORROW NIGHT, THE
WEAKENING HIGH WILL BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE WITH A
BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA AND WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHER ILLINOIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE AS THE BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THESE CALMER CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTED
CLEAR SKIES, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING.
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE
LINGERING MOISTURE AS IT LIFTS LATER IN THE MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WIND, THERE IS A LOWER
CHANCE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO GET AS LOW AS YESTERDAY/TODAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RIDGE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND START A
WARMING TREND. BY SATURDAY, THE DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
- LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN STARTING TUESDAY.
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LATEST LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS POINTS TOWARDS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PATTERN STARTING ON TUESDAY WHEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS
INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA. THE ENSEMBLES ARE UNABLE TO AGREE ON THE
DEPTH/STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY
LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SITS CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE
MENTIONED TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE STRONGER THE TROUGH, THE HIGHER THE PROBABILITY FOR AT
LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN (40%-60%) WHILE THE FASTER TROUGH IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE LESS RAIN.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EAST-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT INDUCED
FLOW WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS SCATTERED CIRRUS STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY AND GIVE WAY TO A FEW
AFTERNOON DIURNAL CU DOTTING THE SKY THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MEANDERS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AGAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THE EXCEPTION IS WHEN A CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS DEW POINTS RISE AND WIND BECOMES CALM.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LUPO
NEAR TERM...MLB/LUPO
SHORT TERM...LUPO
LONG TERM...LUPO
AVIATION...MLB
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