353
FXUS61 KPBZ 030559
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
159 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WITH SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY.
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MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER SCATTERED CIRRUS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS, ALONG WITH A
PERSISTENT LIGHT BREEZE AND DRY DEW POINTS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE JERSEY SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS, WILL HELP BOOST
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW BETTER CONDITIONS FOR NEAR-DAWN RIVER VALLEY FOG.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
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THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF AN UPPER
RIDGING SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND START A
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES,
DRY AIR, AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE, LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MID WEEK.
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LATEST LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS POINTS TOWARD HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, MAINTAINING
DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THAT TIME. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT
POINT, THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE PATTERN
EVOLVES WHEN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE AREA. THE
ENSEMBLES ARE UNABLE TO AGREE ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH AND SPEED OF
THE TROUGH, RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST SITS CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE
MENTIONED TROUGH TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING DURING THAT TIME. A DEEPER/SLOWER TROUGH WOULD
COINCIDE WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF
RAIN (40%-60%) ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WHILE A LESS AMPLIFIED,
FASTER MOVING TROUGH WOULD MORE LIKELY PRODUCE LESS RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOG POTENTIAL IS LOW THIS MORNING AS A CIRRUS SHIELD AND STILL-
MIXED ATMOSPHERE PREVENT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR EAST.
THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL EXIT ON FRI AND GIVE WAY TO A FEW
AFTERNOON DIURNAL CU DOTTING THE SKY, THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE AMID ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING.
MOVEMENT OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
WILL REORIENT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT, LEADING TO LIGHT SFC
WIND VEERING TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WHOLE THROUGH MON AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE NERN CONUS REMAINS ASSERTIVE. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SUN AND MON
WHEN RIVER-VALLEY FOG COULD ENSUE COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL SLACKENING OF THE WIND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LUPO
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...CERMAK/LUPO
LONG TERM...CERMAK/LUPO
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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