899
FXUS61 KPBZ 051347
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
947 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. RAIN RETURNS WITH A TUESDAY COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY
COOLER WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
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HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TONIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 588 DM TODAY,
RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY'S READINGS.
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
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THE UPPER RIDGE THAT SUPPORTED OUR RECENT STRETCH OF WARM AND
DRY WEATHER FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY, BUT WITH
THE LOCAL AREA STILL ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY AND SO MUCH DEEP-
LAYER DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE, EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER
AT LEAST THROUGH DAYTIME HOURS WITH HIGHS TRENDING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL (LOW 80S AREAWIDE) UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND TROUGHING
BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES (AKA THE LOCAL AREA).
THIS BEGINS TO SLOW PROCESS OF ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION, PRIMARILY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AT FIRST, LEADING
TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
STILL IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS, BUT THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, POTENTIALLY NOT DIPPING BELOW
60 DEGREES IN PLACES (CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ARE UPPER 40S).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- PASSING COLD FRONT RETURNS AREAWIDE RAIN TUESDAY
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
- TEMPERATURES FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS
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LOW PRESSURE PASSING WAY OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND RETURN HIGH RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH JUST A BIT AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY AND RETURN 60S DEWPOINTS. PWATS EVENTUALLY BUMP
UP TO NEAR 1.5" WHICH IS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY, SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO WORK
WITH DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT. WHILE TIMING AMONG GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN SUGGESTING RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY MORNING, SOME OF THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE-
ALLOWING MODELS THAT ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO GET INTO RANGE
HAVE SHOWN A SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH RAIN NOT SPREADING INTO THE
AREA UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST (SOME AS LATE AS
LATE TUESDAY EVENING). AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO -
BASED ON SIMILAR PAST EVENTS WHERE A QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM ENTERS
ON THE HEELS OF STRONG RIDGE AND DRY SPELL - IS A MIX OF THE
TWO AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND MEANINGFUL RATES IS HIGHEST LATER
IN THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT'LL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND A LACK OF HEATING (EVEN THE 25TH
PERCENTILE CLOUD COVERAGE FROM NBM >50% TUESDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY). ADDITIONALLY, THE BEST SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, EVEN IN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT FAVOR A DEEPER TROUGH. STILL, CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY, AND WHILE NOT A
DROUGHT BUSTER, THIS SHOULD BE A WELCOMED WETTING RAIN FOR MOST.
PROBABILITY FOR >0.25" IS AROUND 80-90%, >0.5" AT 60-80%, AND
>1" AT 20-40%, SO THE MOST LIKELY RANGE AS OF NOW 0.25"-0.75"
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE TROUGH QUICKLY KICKS OUT OF HERE EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
THE FRONT. A SLOWER, LESS LIKELY SOLUTION SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS
COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS AMONG MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES IS FOR A QUICKER
DEPARTURE AND DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. NBM
MAX GUST PROBABILITIES SHOW A 40-60% CHANCE OF >25 MPH GUSTS FOR
MOST OF EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA.
THE OTHER NOTABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES STARTING TO FEEL
MORE LIKE FALL. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S AND THAT'S RIGHT AROUND WHERE WE LOOK TO BE TO CLOSE OUT THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY RETURN RAIN CHANCES HEADED INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT
DETAILS REMAIN FUZZY AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
OUTLOOK.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS
IN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. VFR THEN RETURNS
THROUGH LATE WEEK UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...CERMAK/MLB
LONG TERM...CERMAK/MLB
AVIATION...WM/MLB
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