301
FXUS61 KPBZ 201158
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
758 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
RETURN TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- AREA-WIDE GUSTY WIND THREAT DECREASES EARLY THIS MORNING, SAVE
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
- WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TUCKER CO. WV CONTINUES THROUGH 8AM
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY
---------------------------------------------------------------
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT,
WITH CURRENT RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.15 INCHES PER
HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 8 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST, RANGING
FROM 25 TO 30MPH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40-50MPH ALONG THE
RIDGES OF WEST VIRGINIA RIDGES, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE BY MID-MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY DECREASE FROM
AFTER SUNRISE WITH A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY TREND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND DRY MONDAY NIGHT
- SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
- PASSING WARM FRONT TUESDAY WILL INCREASE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
----------------------------------------------------------------
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID-30S
TO LOW-40S. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST APPEARS LOW,
GIVEN DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, NO FROST
HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD.
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY
STAYING UNDER A QUARTER INCH. THE PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING 0.10
INCHES IN 12 HOURS REMAINS AROUND 45-50% ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THESE LIGHTER AMOUNTS, AS
STRONG SHEAR WILL KEEP SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY WHILE LIMITED
MOISTURE DEPTH RESULTS IN WEAKER RAINFALL RATES. INCREASE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER CONDITIONS
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY
- FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
-------------------------------------------------------------------
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROADER GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHALLOW
INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN SHOWERS, SUPPORTED BY AN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
JET OF 30-45KTS AROUND 850MB. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY TREND BELOW AVERAGE BY 10 DEGREES.
THE PROBABILITY OF COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAINS
ELEVATED LATE IN THE WEEK AS LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
NIGHTS WITH SUFFICIENT CLEARING TO PROMPT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES,
WITH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY CURRENTLY APPEARING TO OFFER THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRATOCUMULUS (GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR) CONTINUES TO LINGER AT
12Z IN NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE, WITH A FEW ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS REGIME WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER THOUGH. AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST AND GREAT LAKES
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF VEERING TO THE W/SW, AND DRIER AIR IS
STARTING TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAWIDE VFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE MORNING, ALTHOUGH A BROKEN DECK LIKELY WILL LINGER NORTH
OF PIT INTO THE AFTERNOON. WSW WIND WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DIURNALLY STEEPEN.
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE CROSSES, ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND UPPER CLOUD MAY BEGIN TO
SHOW UP TOWARDS SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. WIND MAY FRESHEN A BIT TOWARDS 10 KNOTS OR SO
TOWARDS 12Z.
OUTLOOK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE PERIODIC RESTRICTION AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK AS PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KTS
REMAIN HIGH (>60% CHANCE) EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...MLB/CL
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