243
FXUS61 KPBZ 280627
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED IN LAKE EFFECT
BANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT. DRY WEATHER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM, FEATURING SNOW CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN, ARRIVES SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND GUSTY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
- LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-80
- ADVISORY-LEVEL UPSLOPE SNOW IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV
---------------------------------------------------------------
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CAMS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST ONE OR TWO LAKE EFFECT BANDS SETTING UP EARLY THIS
MORNING NORTH OF I-80 AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LATEST RADAR DOES SHOW SOME SNOW BAND DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST OF
CLEVELAND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF MERCER COUNTY, BUT THIS
FEATURE IS NOT YET ROBUST. I-80 TRAFFIC CAMERAS DO SHOW A
COATING OF SNOW ON THE ROAD, BUT OVERNIGHT REPORTS HAVE BEEN FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-4"
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER A SECOND BAND, AS
PERSISTENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR, WILL SETUP ACROSS VENANGO
COUNTY. SUCH A FEATURE WOULD GREATLY INCREASE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS
THAT COUNTY, AND POSSIBLY INTO CLARION AND JEFFERSON. POTENTIAL
FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND A QUICK UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN
VENANGO AND EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY FOR CLARION/JEFFERSON MAY
BE NEEDED.
AS FOR EASTERN TUCKER, A MUCH MORE TYPICAL UPSLOPE SNOW SETUP IS
EXPECTED. DESPITE ITS FAR DISTANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES,
SNOWFALL RATIOS AND RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE UNSTABLE SATURATED LAYER FINDS ITS WAY INTO THE DGZ. COMBINE
THIS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE MICHIGAN CONNECTION LATER
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON, AND CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. MOST CAMS HAVE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 3" TO 5" RANGE, HIGHEST FOR THE DOLLY SODS
AREA, THOUGH TOTALS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE OBSERVED IN
DAVIS/THOMAS. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 50MPH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH (AND GREATER IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS). GUSTS AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES
TODAY REMAIN CHILLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S (20S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) AND A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- DRY BY SATURDAY MORNING
- SNOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT
----------------------------------------------------------------
DRY CONDITIONS RESUME FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN AND H500 HEIGHTS RISE 16-18DM BY SATURDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF THE REGION, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
THE DEEPENING SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST
AND BE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY, AND THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ASCENT IN WARM ADVECTION, SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. PROBABILITIES FOR
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ARE HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST OF PGH AS
THOSE AREAS SHOULD SEE ENHANCED LIFT UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW AND RAIN FOR SUNDAY
- GENERALLY DRY MONDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY MID
WEEK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY, AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PULLS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN
IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE, AND HOW
FAR NORTH THIS CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END FROM W-E SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER FROPA, THOUGH SOME SNOW COULD
LINGER NORTH OF PIT AS THE FLOW TURNS NW OFF OF THE LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN MONDAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO
DRY WEATHER.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHEAST EAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE GULF
COAST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER ON
THE AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WHILE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLDER SOLUTION WITH MORE SNOW AS A PRECIP
TYPE. WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST. THERE
IS CURRENTLY A SPLIT BETWEEN MVFR (NORTHERN PORTS) AND VFR CIGS
(SOUTHERN PORTS) ACROSS AREA SITES. CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT (>50% CHANCE) SAVE
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES AT ZZV AND MGW. THERE IS GENERALLY A 30%
TO 50% CHANCE OF IFR FOR MOST PORTS BY TOMORROW MORNING, SAVE
MGW AND ZZV.
THE MAIN RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE WARM GREAT LAKES WILL MOST CERTAINLY
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE PERIOD
(VFR/MVFR VIS) WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (HIGHER CHANCE
OF IFR VIS IN DUJ/FKL). CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL HEATING AIDING IN
MIXING AND INSTABILITY.
SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SCATTER FOR MOST
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH A >50% CHANCE THAT FKL AND DUJ HANG
ONTO BROKEN MVFR DECKS WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT CONTINUING SNOW.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY WESTERLY AT THE SURFACE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE
20KT TO 30KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH A
QUICK PASSING BOUT OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, CREATING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST INITIAL
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SNOW AND HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATION (FAVORING ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ) BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
AIDES IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
009.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...WM/88
AVIATION...CL/MILCAREK
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