417
FXUS61 KPBZ 280703 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED IN LAKE EFFECT
BANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT. DRY WEATHER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM, FEATURING SNOW CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN, ARRIVES SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND GUSTY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
- LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-80
- ADVISORY-LEVEL UPSLOPE SNOW IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WV
---------------------------------------------------------------
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CAMS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST ONE OR TWO LAKE EFFECT BANDS SETTING UP EARLY THIS
MORNING NORTH OF I-80 AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LATEST RADAR DOES SHOW SOME SNOW BAND DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST OF
CLEVELAND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF MERCER COUNTY, BUT THIS
FEATURE IS NOT YET ROBUST. I-80 TRAFFIC CAMERAS DO SHOW A
COATING OF SNOW ON THE ROAD, BUT OVERNIGHT REPORTS HAVE BEEN FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-4"
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHETHER A SECOND BAND, AS
PERSISTENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR, WILL SETUP ACROSS VENANGO
COUNTY. SUCH A FEATURE WOULD GREATLY INCREASE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS
THAT COUNTY, AND POSSIBLY INTO CLARION AND JEFFERSON. POTENTIAL
FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND A QUICK UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN
VENANGO AND EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY FOR CLARION/JEFFERSON MAY
BE NEEDED.
AS FOR EASTERN TUCKER, A MUCH MORE TYPICAL UPSLOPE SNOW SETUP IS
EXPECTED. DESPITE ITS FAR DISTANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES,
SNOWFALL RATIOS AND RATES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
THE UNSTABLE SATURATED LAYER FINDS ITS WAY INTO THE DGZ. COMBINE
THIS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE MICHIGAN CONNECTION LATER
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON, AND CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. MOST CAMS HAVE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY IN THE 3" TO 5" RANGE, HIGHEST FOR THE DOLLY SODS
AREA, THOUGH TOTALS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE OBSERVED IN
DAVIS/THOMAS. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 50MPH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH (AND GREATER IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS). GUSTS AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES
TODAY REMAIN CHILLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S (20S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS) AND A NOTICEABLE WIND CHILL. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AND TEENS OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME SKY CLEARING POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO INTO SW PA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
- DRY SATURDAY, WITH SNOW RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT.
- TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
----------------------------------------------------------------
DRY CONDITIONS RESUME AREA WIDE SATURDAY MORNING AS ANY
LINGERING LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHUTS OFF WITH BACKING FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE. ANY MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT-LEVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS AND MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AHEAD
OF CENTRAL CONUS LOW PRESSURE AND A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT ONSET BEFORE
A TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESUME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BEFORE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITIES FOR AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ARE HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST OF PGH AS THOSE
AREAS SHOULD SEE ENHANCED LIFT UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW REMAIN <50% AT
THIS TIME, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS WE COME WITHIN SIGHT OF THE
CAMS.
PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST SUNDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY DRY MONDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY MID
WEEK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A SOUTHEAST
US SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, EXITING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES AS A RESULT OF
DIFFERING WARM ADVECTION STRENGTH. ENSEMBLES HAVE GENERALLY
FAVORED A COLDER SOLUTION, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN
AND SNOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND PROPENSITY FOR UNDERFORECASTING
WARM ADVECTION.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE
MINOR SNOW CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE ON TRACK WITH THE PRIOR FORECAST. THERE
IS CURRENTLY A SPLIT BETWEEN MVFR (NORTHERN PORTS) AND VFR CIGS
(SOUTHERN PORTS) ACROSS AREA SITES. CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO MVFR FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT (>50% CHANCE) SAVE
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES AT ZZV AND MGW. THERE IS GENERALLY A 30%
TO 50% CHANCE OF IFR FOR MOST PORTS BY TOMORROW MORNING, SAVE
MGW AND ZZV.
THE MAIN RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE WARM GREAT LAKES WILL MOST CERTAINLY
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE PERIOD
(VFR/MVFR VIS) WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (HIGHER CHANCE
OF IFR VIS IN DUJ/FKL). CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH DIURNAL HEATING AIDING IN
MIXING AND INSTABILITY.
SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SCATTER FOR MOST
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH A >50% CHANCE THAT FKL AND DUJ HANG
ONTO BROKEN MVFR DECKS WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT CONTINUING SNOW.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY WESTERLY AT THE SURFACE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE
20KT TO 30KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR SATURDAY WITH A
QUICK PASSING BOUT OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, CREATING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST INITIAL
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SNOW AND HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATION (FAVORING ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ) BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
AIDES IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
009.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY
AVIATION...CL/MILCAREK
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