535
FXUS61 KPBZ 281844
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
144 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED IN LAKE EFFECT
BANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT. DRY WEATHER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM, FEATURING SNOW CHANGING OVER
TO RAIN, ARRIVES SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND GUSTY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
- WINTER HEADLINES ENDING AT 7PM
- NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE DAY ON SATURDAY
---------------------------------------------------------------
THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND STILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS
ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING DAY.
WITH SOME MINIMAL DAYTIME HEATING THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY. THE SHORT TERM MESOANALYST SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS VENANGO COUNTY REPORTING OVER 5
INCHES AS OF THIS MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS SETTING UP
LATER IN THE DAY, THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING WAS EXTENDED EASTWARD
TO INCLUDE VENANGO. HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS FROM WNW TO W, THE BANDS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME
MORE ISOLATED AND THE BANDS SHIFT NORTH TO MORE CRAWFORD AND
WARREN COUNTIES. THUS, THE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL COME TO
AN END BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
HEADING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS BUT THIS IS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE LOW 20S BUT THIS IS STILL AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN MOST SITUATIONS. THUS, WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW
POTENTIAL ENDING, THE NBM PROBS GIVE A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE NORTH
OF I-80 FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BETWEEN 1PM TODAY AND 1PM
SATURDAY.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP SUGGESTS
THE COLDER AIR WILL STILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. THUS WILL
EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN AS SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL, THE TIME OF ARRIVAL ACCORDING TO THE
PROBS SUGGEST A 20Z TO 00Z ARRIVAL ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT.
- TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
----------------------------------------------------------------
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH CROSSES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST CHANCES
LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT ONSET BEFORE
A TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESUME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BEFORE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITIES FOR AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ARE HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST OF PGH AS THOSE
AREAS SHOULD SEE ENHANCED LIFT UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW REMAIN LESS
THAN 40% AT THIS TIME FOR THOSE SAME MENTIONED AREAS.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL THEN DROP OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LARGELY DRY MONDAY
- SNOW AND RAIN RETURN TUESDAY
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A SOUTHEAST
US SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, EXITING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES AS A RESULT OF
DIFFERING WARM ADVECTION STRENGTH. ENSEMBLES HAVE GENERALLY
FAVORED A COLDER SOLUTION, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN
AND SNOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND PROPENSITY FOR UNDERFORECASTING
WARM ADVECTION.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AND
BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE, BEFORE MINOR SNOW CHANCES RETURN
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
00Z THIS EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE OVER FKL AND DUJ AS
THE BANDS CONTINUE AND WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES. THE
REST OF THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
PERHAPS LBE OR BVI DROPS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. EXPECT THE SNOW
SHOWER POTENTIAL TO END FOR THE NORTHERN (ALL) COUNTIES BY 06Z
TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM THROUGH 00Z,
GENERALLY WESTERLY AT THE SURFACE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE
20KT TO 30KT RANGE. AFTER THIS, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AFTER 00Z AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
COMING DAY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT,
CREATING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST INITIAL PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SNOW AND HAVE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION (FAVORING ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ) BEFORE
WARM ADVECTION AIDES IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007-008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ009.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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