627
FXUS61 KPBZ 290001
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
701 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS BEING LIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES AND MELTING SNOW
COULD CREATE ICY POCKETS ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT THAT DRIVERS MAY
NEED TO EXHIBIT CAUTION. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH THE
NEXT WINTRY SYSTEM SUNDAY, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW MAY
OCCUR WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL WANE WITH ONLY LIMITED ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS
- POTENTIAL FOR ICY PATCHES ON ROADWAYS TONIGHT AS SOME ROADS
SEE SNOW MELT THEN RE-FREEZE
---------------------------------------------------------------
THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
PA, LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING
SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. COVERAGE HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OVERNIGHT WHILE
SNOWFALL RATES DIMINISH. DUE TO THESE TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEING FAIRLY
LIGHT, THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THE IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY BE ENDING, BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME CONCERNS FOR TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN
INDICATIONS THAT SOME AREA ROADWAYS ARE DEVELOPING ICY PATCHES
AS A RESULT OF ENOUGH SNOWFALL THAT IS MELTING BUT RE-FREEZING
AS TEMPERATURE FALLS. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY PATCHES,
ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED ROADS AND OVERPASSES, A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM FAR EASTERN OH
THROUGH WESTERN PA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV. PLEASE EXERCISE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ON ROADS THAT APPEARS WET OR HAVE PUDDLES
AND MAY BE UNTREATED.
RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION HELP LOWER AREA TEMPERATURE NEAR THE 20S
TO UPPER TEENS DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WANING
SURFACE GRADIENTS (AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING) WILL HELP
LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND ENSURE MOST LOCATIONS (SAVE FOR THE COLDER
EASTERN TUCKER CLIMATE) SEE WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE TEENS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT.
- TRANSITION TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
----------------------------------------------------------------
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SFC
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT THIS
TIME, THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT ONSET BEFORE
A TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY
RESUME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR BEFORE WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITIES FOR AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ARE HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST OF PGH AS THOSE
AREAS SHOULD SEE ENHANCED LIFT UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW REMAIN LESS
THAN 40% AT THIS TIME FOR THOSE SAME MENTIONED AREAS.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL THEN DROP OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LARGELY DRY MONDAY
- SNOW AND RAIN RETURN TUESDAY
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND A SOUTHEAST
US SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, EXITING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES AS A RESULT OF
DIFFERING WARM ADVECTION STRENGTH. ENSEMBLES HAVE GENERALLY
FAVORED A COLDER SOLUTION, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF RAIN
AND SNOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND PROPENSITY FOR UNDER-FORECASTING
WARM ADVECTION.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AND
BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE, BEFORE MINOR SNOW CHANCES RETURN
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF MAINE HAS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
HAVE BEEN MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE THIS EVENING BRINGING
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR VIS WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN VFR WITH A MID-
LEVEL BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK. HEADED INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT THAT
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CUT OFF THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND DISSIPATE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES, SAVE FKL/DUJ, WITH THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND WIND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5-10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
FOR FKL/DUJ, EXPECT THAT BKN TO OVC CEILINGS WILL HOVER RIGHT
AROUND 3KFT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ABLE TO HANG ON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AND BRINGING TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO LOW-END VFR IS FAVORED AFTER
THAT, BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CLOUD
COVERAGE AT THOSE TWO SITES.
VFR CONTINUES FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AS WIND BACKS FROM THE WEST
TO ULTIMATELY SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT GENERALLY REMAINS
LIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS. INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE WILL OVERSPREAD
FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT,
CREATING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH INCREASING
PROBABILITY FOR ON MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST INITIAL
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SNOW AND HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATION (FAVORING ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ) BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
AIDES IN A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...FRAZIER
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...MLB
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