559
FXUS61 KPBZ 301149
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
649 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TRANSITIONS TO RAIN
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST, THOUGH TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR. MORE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW TRANSITIONS TO RAIN THIS MORNING
- 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF I-80
- GLAZE OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN RIDGES OF SW PA AND
NORTHERN WV, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
3AM UNTIL NOON.
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LIGHT SNOW HAS FINALLY STARTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOISTEN. HOWEVER,
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS ALREADY QUICKLY COMING
TO AN END AS THE BACK EDGE NUDGES INTO WESTERN PA. SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL
INITIALLY HELP DELAY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE, BUT
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST OF I-76. AVERAGE ONSET
TEMPERATURE DROP HAS BEEN 3 TO 5 DEGREES AT THE SURFACE.
THOUGH SNOW ONSET WAS SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR, ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND SNOW HAS
BARELY REDUCED VISIBILITY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THAT REGION
REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES THIS MORNING NOW HINGES ON CELLULAR SNOW CELL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
WARMING TEMPERATURES MAY OVERCOME THIS DEVELOPMENT, QUICKLY
DROPPING SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS AND POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING THE
I-80 CORRIDOR TO ALL RAIN BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
A SECOND CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF FREEZING
RAIN MIXING IN WITH SNOW ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE LAURELS AND
ALLEGHENY MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH NOON FOR THOSE AREAS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD END THOUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES. LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, FAVORED
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH, WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPS
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARDS SUNSET THIS EVENING. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT, BUT UP TO AN
ISOLATED INCH IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 20S AS POPS DIMINISH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND COLD MONDAY
- POPS RISE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT
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SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY, KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY. SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE MAY BE SEEN MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLOUDS FILL BACK IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING, EVENTUALLY CROSSING TO OUR EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
TRANSITION UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW
TRACK, AND OUR POSITION ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP MOST P-TYPE AS SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER,
STRONG WARM ADVECTION UP THE RIDGES WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD ALSO REDUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR LOWLANDS SOUTHEAST OF
PITTSBURGH. ELSEWHERE, INITIAL PREDICTIONS POINT TO A WIDESPREAD
3-4" WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NW PA AND IN THE RIDGES. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE AREA. PROBABILITIES FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL REMAIN
LOW.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO MOST PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S, AIDED BY COLD ADVECTION AND
LINGERING SNOW PACK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
- SNOW AND RAIN RETURN TUESDAY, THURSDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
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HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CROSS FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ANOTHER TRAILING
COLD FRONT AN SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. BETTER
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
AND SO POPS WILL BE HIGHEST NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THERMAL PROFILE
SUPPORT ALL SNOW EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME WINTRY MIX IN THE MON
VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO QUICKLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN EVEN BRIEFER BOUT OF
DRY WEATHER. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES THEN INDICATE YET ANOTHER
GULF TO COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW
MUCH OF LITTLE SNOW FOR OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, FAVORING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ONGOING LOW-END VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR AREAWIDE AS A COLD FRONT THAT'S CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
INTO WESTERN OH SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, AS WELL AS A BRIEF UPTICK IN GUSTS WITH
LATEST UPSTREAM OBS OVER INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO SHOWING PEAKS
AS HIGH AS 30-40 KNOTS.
ANY PRECIPITATION LARGELY ENDS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO IFR MAY SHOW UP NEAR
FKL/DUJ IN THE 03Z-09Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND LOSING GUSTS AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ON TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ512-514.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/AK
AVIATION...CERMAK
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