951
FXUS61 KPBZ 301829
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
129 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS AND LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION AND WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MORE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BRINGS BREEZY WINDS AND DROPPING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
- SNOW SHOWERS REDEVELOP NORTH OF I-80 THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT
- LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
---------------------------------------------------------------
A CROSSING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THOUGH AREAS NEAR AND NORTH
OF I-80 COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION TRANSITION BACK
TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT, BUT UP TO AN ISOLATED INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
SHOWERS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP BACK
INTO THE LOW/MID 20S UNDER POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION.
SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME BROKEN SUNSHINE MAY BE SEEN MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN AND SNOW RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT
- ICE POSSIBLE IN THE MON VALLEY AND WV/PA RIDGES
- ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
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ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC, THIS
DRAGS A LOW NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST, THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS SUCH POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT MORE
CLOSELY ON THE PRECISE LOW TRACK THROUGH COASTAL GA/SC AND DIRECTLY
UP THE EAST COAST, POSITIONING US ON THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE. THIS
TRACK PLACES THE TRANSITION ZONE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AND ALONG
AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THIS HAVE A
BETTER SHOT TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND THEREFORE HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SEEING 2-4" SNOWFALL TOTALS. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS, PRECIP TYPES
MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WITH A WINTRY MIX MORE
LIKELY IN THIS REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW HAVE
CLIMBED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (SAVE FOR THE MON VALLEY) COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO. PROBABILITIES FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW REMAIN LARGELY
BETWEEN 10-20% AT THEIR HIGHEST.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1"/HOUR SEEM POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL,
LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. THESE RATES PEAK
IN SEVERAL STRIPES RUNNING SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION, HIGHLIGHTING
EMBEDDED HEAVIER BANDS IN THE STRATIFORM SNOW. NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES FOR 1"/HOUR RATES PEAK AS HIGH AS 60-80% IN SE OHIO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR, BUT ARE AT LEAST 20-30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
STOUT 850MB WAA RACING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS POINTS
TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MON VALLEY AND
EASTERN RIDGES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE CHANCES REMAIN
HIGHEST IN OUR WV RIDGES, WHERE THE BEST WAA WILL BE. FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER, THERE COULD STILL COULD BE FREEZING
RAIN IF THE WAA OVER PERFORMS BUT CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT
TOWARDS A PERIOD OF MELTING SNOW OR SLEET. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
A GLAZE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
MORNING, HIGHEST IN THE WV RIDGES.
AT THIS TIME A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER IN THE
RIDGES FOR POSSIBLE ICE. WE COULD END UP IN A SITUATION WHERE THE
ONLY AREAS THAT DO NOT NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD BE
PORTIONS OF THE MON VALLEY, WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE KEPT IN
CHECK BY LOW SLRS/RAINFALL AND FREEZING RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN
JUST EAST IN THE RIDGES. NO MATTER THE HEADLINE DECISION, THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE A MESSY AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
ONE ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATIONS AND WE URGE EXTRA CAUTION ON AREA ROADWAYS.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES QUICKLY CLIMBING THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. POPS BEGIN TO DECLINE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH THE
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND FLEETING ACROSS
THE REGION. SNOWFALL MAY LINGER LONGEST NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80 AS
WELL AS IN THE RIDGES WITH A BRIEF PUSH OF NW FLOW. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT SHUTTING THIS OFF.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
- BRIEFLY DRY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A BRIEF STAY BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY BUT THE OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND TRAVERSES EASTWARD THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DIPS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH
LENDING ONLY A REAL UPTICK IN POPS NORTH OF I-70. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SEEMINGLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE
FAR SOUTHERN EDGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS STAY BRIEFLY AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB FROM
THE GULF COAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ONCE AGAIN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE EXACT PRECIP TYPE AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS, BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINTRY WEATHER COULD BE WITH
US TO END THE WORK WEEK AND BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD FAVORING DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING
THE REGION. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT
NUMEROUS TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH THESE SHOULD ONLY
LAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ENDS BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH
LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80 WILL TRANSITION FROM
RAIN BACK TO SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER
06Z. LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
FKL/DUJ IN THOSE EVENING SNOW SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT - GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AS
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER
THE END OF THE CURRENT 24-HR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH THE
TUESDAY SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE 06Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DURING THAT WINDOW, THE LATEST
HREF IS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE NARROW SW-NE
ORIENTED BANDS TO EMBED WITHIN THE BROADER SHIELD OF SNOW.
ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL COINCIDE WITH
THESE BANDS, WITH A ROUGHLY 30-50% PROBABILITY OF RATES
REACHING OR EXCEEDED AN INCH/HR. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE (OR WHETHER) THE BANDS
WILL FORM.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...CERMAK/RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY/AK
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/AK
AVIATION...CERMAK
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