160
FXUS61 KPBZ 030747
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
247 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER TODAY. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY PROVIDES A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- REFREEZING ON UNTREATED SURFACES COULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE
- DRY AND CONTINUED COLD TODAY
---------------------------------------------------------------
OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAIN
MESSAGE THROUGH THE PREDAWN AND MORNING COMMUTE HOURS CONTINUES
TO BE THE THREAT OF ICY ROADS. ANY MOISTURE THAT HAS REMAINED
(ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS) HAS FROZEN WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY DAWN. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE
RIDGING SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM A HIGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND
DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE STRATOCUMULUS TO BREAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO SOME SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. TO THE NORTH, THE DECREASE IN LOWER
CLOUDS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING PROVIDES
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR LESS
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT; SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
----------------------------------------------------------------
THE NEXT COLD FRONT, EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH IN
CANADA, IS STILL SLATED FOR A LATE NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING
PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, PROVIDING WHAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW.
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK OVERALL FOR OUR REGION, AS THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
THROUGH QUEBEC. ALSO, MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER STRUGGLES TO APPROACH 0.5 INCH, WHICH IS NOT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT. STILL, WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS
OF AROUND 15:1 OR 16:1, THE MEAGER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TRANSLATE TO A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A HALF-INCH TO AN INCH WITH
THE FAIRLY RAPID FROPA. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN AN INCH
ARE GENERALLY 30-50 PERCENT NEAR AND EAST OF I-79; THE LAURELS
ARE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO REACH THAT THRESHOLD GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. AREAS NORTH OF I-80 NEED TO
BE MONITORED AS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES INTO THE DGZ
THAT COULD SUPPORT BRIEFLY STOUTER SNOW SHOWERS DURING PEAK
HEATING, WHICH COULD LOCALLY NUDGE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD. MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWER/POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALLS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION, WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY, DEEPER
MIXING/STEEPER LAPSE RATES, AND SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES
WILL BE REALIZED. ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS OVERALL WILL BE MINOR,
THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING TIMING ONCE AGAIN INTERSECTS THE MORNING
COMMUTE. A HEADLINE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, BUT THE
IMPACTS TO AREA ROADS MAY WARRANT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUANCE AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
SNOW COVERAGE SHOULD LARGELY DECREASE AFTER NOON AS THE 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH PASSES, WITH SOME AT LEAST PARTIAL CLOUD CLEARING
BEFORE SUNSET. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR PROVIDED BY THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. MIXING MAY PROVIDE AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS AND UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
RIDGES, WHICH MAY DROP WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE 10 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN PAY A VISIT TO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A CLEARING SKY, DIMINISHING
WIND, AND A FRESH LAYER OF SNOW WILL HELP TO PROVIDE WHAT WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND OF THE YOUNG WINTER SEASON.
THE NBM SUGGESTS A 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SINGLE-DIGIT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE RIDGES AND MOST NON-URBAN LOCATIONS NORTH OF
I-70. A FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY; SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- MORE CHANCES AT WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE OVERALL BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS, POINTING
TO CONTINUED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDING THE FLOW GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TRACK OF THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGHING MAY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AREA, WHICH SUPPORTS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW
CLIPPING LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH THROUGH THE DAY.
A COLD FRONTAL APPROACH AND PASSAGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION AND LAKE MOISTURE FOR LOW-END SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES IN AREAS SUBJECT TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND
TERRAIN-ENHANCED LIFT.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. THE CONTINUED COLD
PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION
TYPE.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
-MVFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING, SCATTERING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
-LIGHT SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS RETURN AROUND 06Z THURSDAY
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LINGERING
LOW-LEVLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND BACKING TO THE SW AROUND 8-10 KTS. THIS WILL
HELP SCATTER CLOUDS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
ALSO ADVECTS IN. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
LIGHT SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN AFTER AROUND 06Z THURSDAY MORNING, CLEARING BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
AT LEAST FOUR OF OUR CLIMATE SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO CHALLENGE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 5 ON FRIDAY MORNING. TWO
OTHER SITES ARE LESS LIKELY TO APPROACH THEIR RECORD LOWS.
CURRENT 12/5 FORECAST
SITE RECORD LOW LOW
---- ---------- ------------
PITT INTL 12 (1976) 10
MORGANTOWN 11 (1974) 12
DUBOIS 10 (1991) 6
WHEELING 12 (1944) 11
ZANESVILLE 3 (1957) 10
NEW PHILADELPHIA 2 (1966) 8
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...RACKLEY/MLB
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