174
FXUS61 KPBZ 040056
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
756 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER TODAY. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY PROVIDES A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL MAINLY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW
- THREAT OF REFREEZING ON ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE
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A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SET TO SWIFTLY CROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, FAVORING
4AM-11AM (NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST). DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE
PROFILES, ENOUGH JET AIDED ASCENT PLUS FRONTOGENESIS WILL CREATE
AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW, MODERATE SNOW NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE. THIS SNOW WILL REACH NORTHWEST PA BY 9PM AND SLOWLY
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH PEAK
ACCUMULATION RATES OCCURING NEAR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 20% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME UPSLOPE POTENTIAL AIDING HIGHER
CHANCES ALONG THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS), MITIGATING ANY HEADLINE
ISSUANCE. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF UP TO 0.25"/HR RATES AND
COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES MEANS SNOW MAY STICK TO AREA ROADWAYS
(ESPECIALLY ELEVATED SURFACES), POTENTIALLY CREATING SLICK
SURFACES. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ROADWAY IMPACTS
DUE TO SNOW (AND RE-FREEZING OF ANY MELTING SNOW) THAT MAY
NECESSITATE SLOWER TRAVEL.
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH EAST AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IN ITS WAKE WILL FOSTER RAPID CESSATION OF SNOW AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD EROSION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ANY SUNSHINE MAY WARM INTERIOR ROOMS BUT WILL BE
OF NO EFFECT TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE; STRONG COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FAVORS TEMPERATURE READINGS TO
FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. COMBINED WITH BREEZY WIND,
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE COMMON IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FRIDAY.
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CLEARING WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. FOR AT LEAST THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE ENTIRE AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE VERY
EFFECTIVE RADIATIVE COOLING WITH CALM AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH A SURFACE SNOWPACK. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THERE WILL BE SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE
EFFICIENCY OF COOLING FOR REGIONS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH, WITH
SOME EURO ENSEMBLES SHOWING CLOUDS APPROACHING, WHILE MOST
AMERICAN ENSEMBLES STAY CLEAR (AND COOLER). THIS COULD BE
RECORD BREAKING COLD FOR MANY AREA SITES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
MUCH OF THE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IS IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS LIKELY THE COOLEST
LOCATIONS.
CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY IS TIED TO A LARGER UNCERTAINTY IN A LOW
TRACK FOR THE MORNING FRIDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE THE LOW
RECURVING SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST, PROVIDING SOME SNOW CHANCES,
PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, WHILE OTHERS HAVE THE
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING, SHUNTING THE LOW OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH.
ON THE HIGH END, AN ADVISORY (3" TO 6") MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE WV HIGH TERRAIN, BUT ON THE LOW END, ALL AREAS COULD SEE
NOTHING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MORE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
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A WEAK REINFORCEMENT OF TROUGHING HAS INCREASED IN CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY ALLOW LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW IN ANY
ACCUMULATIONS >1" (15% TO 30%), SHOULD THEY OCCUR AT ALL (40%
TO 70% CHANCE). THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE FOR THE PA/WV RIDGES, AND THE LOWEST WOULD BE IN EASTERN
OHIO.
MID-TO-LATE WEEK TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTIES WOULD BE MORE TIED
TO AMPLITUDE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SEMI-PERSISTANT EASTERN TROUGH.
A STRONGER PREVAILING TROUGH WOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS,
WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF LOW-QPF SNOWFALL. A WEAKER TROUGH WOULD
LIKELY CORRELATE TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER QPF POTENTIAL
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW RETURNING AROUND 06Z.
- INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS/VIS WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
- AREAWIDE VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY TOMORROW EVENING.
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THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED DIVE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS BEGINNING
AS SOON AS 04Z WHEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN NEAR FKL AND DUJ. THE
LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
INTERMITTENT IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. MGW HAS A LOWER PROBABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED BY THE SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW IS LOWER FARTHER SOUTH.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, MOST SITES WILL BEGIN TO SEE CEILINGS SCATTER OUT
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST. VFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY BY
TOMORROW EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DAYTIME WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO FRESHEN WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
AT LEAST FOUR OF OUR CLIMATE SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO CHALLENGE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 5 ON FRIDAY MORNING. TWO
OTHER SITES ARE LESS LIKELY TO APPROACH THEIR RECORD LOWS.
CURRENT 12/5 FORECAST
SITE RECORD LOW LOW
---- ---------- ------------
PITT INTL 12 (1976) 9
MORGANTOWN 11 (1974) 11
DUBOIS 10 (1991) 6
WHEELING 12 (1944) 10
ZANESVILLE 3 (1957) 9
NEW PHILADELPHIA 2 (1966) 7
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...FRAZIER
SHORT TERM...MILCAREK
LONG TERM...MILCAREK
AVIATION...LUPO
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