067
FXUS61 KPBZ 041811
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND, WHICH COMBINED WITH
EXISTING SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW ENDS BY THIS EVENING
- THREAT OF REFREEZING ON ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE
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A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES WILL LINGER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BUT THERE WILL BE NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. ANY SNOW SHOULD LARGELY CEASE BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL MITIGATE ANY TEMPERATURE INCREASE AND ACTUALLY
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, AND WITH A
LESSENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, LESS CLOUD COVERAGE, AND EXISTING
SNOW COVER, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE CLOSE TO RECORD BREAKING LOWS
OVERNIGHT. AREAS NORTH OF THE WV/PA BORDER AWAY FROM URBAN
AREAS/RIVER VALLEYS HAVE A 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO
FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 RANGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEAR-RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FRIDAY.
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GENERALIZED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY WILL BE
MARRED SLIGHTLY BY A FLAT MID-LEVEL WAVE, WITH A SURFACE
REFLECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO REMAINS A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WV RIDGES OF
UNDER AN INCH. THE TOTAL RANGE OF SCENARIOS RUN FROM A FAR
SOUTH STORM TRACK WITH NO SNOW AT ALL IN THE FORECAST AREA, TO
A PARTIAL RECURVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THAT COULD PUSH LIGHT
SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS PITTSBURGH, AND PROVIDE A FEW INCHES TO
THE RIDGES OF PRESTON/TUCKER COUNTIES. GIVEN THE PATTERN, THE
FORMER SEEMS LIKE A MORE REASONABLE OUTCOME THAN THE LATTER.
ANY SNOW WOULD DEPART BY SUNSET, LEAVING A DRY AND COLD FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MORE WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
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THE TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
CONTINUING THE TREND OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NOT A
SIGNAL FOR ANY LARGE EVENT, BUT IN ANY CASE, THERE IS GENERALLY
A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE NBM OF A TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF ONE INCH OR MORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE FOR THE PA/WV RIDGES, AND
THE LOWEST WOULD BE IN EASTERN OHIO. A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD
TEMPERATURES APPEARS LIKELY; MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE 30S
SATURDAY/SUNDAY HAVE A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OR GREATER OF FALLING
BELOW FREEZING ON MONDAY.
MID-TO-LATE WEEK TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTIES WOULD BE MORE TIED
TO AMPLITUDE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SEMI-PERSISTANT EASTERN TROUGH.
A STRONGER PREVAILING TROUGH WOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS,
WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF LOW-QPF SNOWFALL. A WEAKER TROUGH WOULD
LIKELY CORRELATE TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER QPF POTENTIAL
IN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- IFR BELOW CIGS EXPECTED/VIS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
- MODELS MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON
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THE COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW COMING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AS IT COMES
ASHORE. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CAUSE A NORTHWEST SHIFT IN THE WINDS AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WITH THIS, EXPECT IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THUS, PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING BUT VFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL
06Z TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY, ESPECIALLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS MENTIONED, CLEARING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK... VFR BEGINS TO BECOME THE RULE NOT THE EXCEPTION BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
AT LEAST FOUR OF OUR CLIMATE SITES HAVE A CHANCE TO CHALLENGE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER 5 ON FRIDAY MORNING. TWO
OTHER SITES ARE LESS LIKELY TO APPROACH THEIR RECORD LOWS.
CURRENT 12/5 FORECAST
SITE RECORD LOW LOW
---- ---------- ------------
PITT INTL 12 (1976) 11
MORGANTOWN 11 (1974) 14
DUBOIS 10 (1991) 7
WHEELING 12 (1944) 12
ZANESVILLE 3 (1957) 11
NEW PHILADELPHIA 2 (1966) 9
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CL/88
NEAR TERM...CL/88
SHORT TERM...CL/88
LONG TERM...CL/88
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/AK
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