571
FXUS61 KPBZ 151714
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1214 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A CROSSING WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
- COLD TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
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LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ENDED EARLIER THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRY CHANCES WILL RETURN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BETTER SNOW CHANCES WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PITTSBURGH NORTHWARD WITH PERHAPS A
DUSTING IN SOME LOCATIONS. IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE, EXCEPT
BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES.
OTHERWISE, PARTLY SUNNY BUT COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE WITH THE CROSSING SHORTWAVE, BUT CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WIND,
CLEARING SKY, AND SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- WARMING TEMPERATURES
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UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS HELPING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC, BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR AN PRECIPITATION HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR ZERO, BUT THIS WILL
HELP INCREASE CLOUD COVER. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR-AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS
PUSH INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
- QUICK COLD-SHOT ON FRIDAY.
- RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
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THE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST KEEPS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH A
STOUT BUT WEAKENED RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER MAJOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THE AREA BY THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN EXPECTED AT THE ONSET. THERE CERTAINLY IS
A CASE WHERE A FEW INSTANCES OF POCKETS OF COLD AIR COULD ALLOW
FOR AN INSTANCE OR 2 WITH FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT WILL NEED MONITORED AS THE TIME APPROACHES.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TROUGH STRENGTH. AT THIS TIME, A WEAKER TROUGH IS MORE LIKELY,
LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER LAKE EFFECT CHANCES. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY WOULD MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGES WITH NO MAJOR INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR OR WARMER
AIR. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS LINES UP WITH THE CPC OUTLOOKS SHOWING WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO CHRISTMAS AS WELL. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT AS THE NEXT TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH
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A FEW INSTANCES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND IN
TO THE OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A FEW
INSTANCES OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A MID
LEVEL DECK AT ABOUT 10KFT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK... GENERAL VFR SHOULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO RETURN LATER
THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW. MILD TEMPERATURES LEAN TOWARDS
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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