338
FXUS61 KPBZ 152317
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
617 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET, DRY, AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY WITH A PASSING COLD
FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
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THE CHANCE FOR SNOW HAS DIMINISHED, AND WE EXPECT CLEAR, CALM,
AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SNOW COVERAGE LIMITING ENERGY ABSORBED
DURING THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY, WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- WARMING TEMPERATURES
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UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS HELPING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC, BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR AN PRECIPITATION HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR ZERO, BUT THIS WILL
HELP INCREASE CLOUD COVER. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR-AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS
PUSH INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
- QUICK COLD-SHOT ON FRIDAY.
- RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
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THE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST KEEPS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH A
STOUT BUT WEAKENED RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER MAJOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THE AREA BY THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN EXPECTED AT THE ONSET. THERE CERTAINLY IS
A CASE WHERE A FEW INSTANCES OF POCKETS OF COLD AIR COULD ALLOW
FOR AN INSTANCE OR 2 WITH FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT WILL NEED MONITORED AS THE TIME APPROACHES.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TROUGH STRENGTH. AT THIS TIME, A WEAKER TROUGH IS MORE LIKELY,
LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER LAKE EFFECT CHANCES. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY WOULD MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGES WITH NO MAJOR INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR OR WARMER
AIR. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS LINES UP WITH THE CPC OUTLOOKS SHOWING WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO CHRISTMAS AS WELL. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
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MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS WOUND DOWN AND MOVED NORTH OF OUR PORTS AT
THIS TIME. VFR PREVAILS TO OPEN THE TAF PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. THE LIKELY ONLY
HICCUP TO THIS COULD BE SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATOCU COMING IN OFF
THE LAKES FOR FKL/DUJ DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RISK
WANES AS WE APPROACH 12Z.
AFTER THIS, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TUESDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
LIKELY PRECLUDES PRECIPITATION ISSUES. MVFR PROBABILITIES
INCREASE TO AROUND 30-40% FROM 00-12Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK... GENERAL VFR SHOULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO RETURN LATER
THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW. MILD TEMPERATURES LEAN TOWARDS
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AK
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