249
FXUS61 KPBZ 160827
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
327 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNING LATE
THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS MORNING
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CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD LOWS WITH SNOW COVERAGE, LIGHT
WIND, AND LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE HAVE PROMOTED RELATIVELY
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AREAWIDE. SO LOW TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS UPPER
RIDGING AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION,
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH, AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
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BY WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC, BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR AN PRECIPITATION HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR ZERO, BUT THIS WILL
HELP INCREASE CLOUD COVER. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR-AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS
PUSH INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY.
- QUICK COLD-SHOT ON FRIDAY.
- RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
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THE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST KEEPS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH A
STOUT BUT WEAKENED RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EAST. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER MAJOR SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THE AREA BY THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN EXPECTED AT THE ONSET. THERE CERTAINLY IS
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TODAY, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS HELPING HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER BEING
MAINTAINED.
A CASE WHERE A FEW INSTANCES OF POCKETS OF COLD AIR COULD ALLOW
FOR AN INSTANCE OR 2 WITH FREEZING RAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
POTENTIAL IS LOW BUT WILL NEED MONITORED AS THE TIME APPROACHES.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TROUGH STRENGTH. AT THIS TIME, A WEAKER TROUGH IS MORE LIKELY,
LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER LAKE EFFECT CHANCES. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY WOULD MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS
WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
LITTLE CHANGES WITH NO MAJOR INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR OR WARMER
AIR. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS LINES UP WITH THE CPC OUTLOOKS SHOWING WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO CHRISTMAS AS WELL. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
------------------------------------------------------------
HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TOWARDS
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LENDS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPTICK IN
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION
MEANS WIND WILL BECOME MORE S TO SSW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 15KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE TWO AREAS WHERE FORECAST COULD VEER. THE FIRST IS
TETHERED TO AN OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT ALLOWS FOR ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE WHILE DRAWING LAKE MOISTURE TO SNEAK BRIEF MVFR TO
LOW VFR CIGS AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH 14Z (20-40% PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE). THE SECOND IS POTENTIAL FASTER TIMING ON A SURGE OF
MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW AFT 21Z THAT WOULD MORE QUICKLY BRING A VFR
TO MVFR CIG (40-60% AT ZZV TO HLG). NEITHER SCENARIO IS LIKELY
ENOUGH FOR MENTION, WITH THE LATTER MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT NORTH OF THE REGION MAY ALLOW
FOR LOW PROBABILITY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND A VFR TO MVFR
STRATUS LAYER OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
UNTIL THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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