940
FXUS61 KPBZ 161225
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
725 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNING LATE
THURSDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS MORNING
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
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CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. COLD LOWS WITH SNOW COVERAGE, LIGHT
WIND, AND LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE HAVE PROMOTED RELATIVELY
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AREAWIDE. SO LOW TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS UPPER
RIDGING AND RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION,
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH, AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE , BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
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BY WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC, WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSING THE REGION.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO SENSIBLE
WEATHER BE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. INCREASED WARM ADVECTION
AND H500 HEIGHTS JUMPING AROUND 15DM WILL FINALLY PUMP UP
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMEST HIGHS IN QUITE A WHILE ON THURSDAY
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN
- QUICK COLD-SHOT ON FRIDAY
- RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
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AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL AMP UP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH H850
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 8C AND 10C. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE
REGION. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON TROUGH STRENGTH. AT THIS TIME, A WEAKER TROUGH IS
MORE LIKELY, LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER LAKE
EFFECT CHANCES. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON FRIDAY WOULD MOSTLY BE
LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RETURN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PGH. THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
------------------------------------------------------------
HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TOWARDS
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE LENDS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPTICK IN
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE REGION
MEANS WIND WILL BECOME MORE S TO SSW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 15KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HI-RES MODELING FAVORS A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN SSW FLOW AFT 21Z
THAT COULD OVERSPREAD LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEARISH ON THIS OUTCOME, PUTTING HIGHER
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN OCCURRENCE, BUT TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD
THE HIGHER RES GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS 40-60% PROBABILITY OF
BELOW 3KFT CIGS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. DROPPING OF A DECAYING SURFACE BOUNDARY AMID SHORTWAVE
MOVEMENT NORTH FAVORS MVFR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A
NON-ZERO PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, RETURNING VFR
CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL TRANSITION TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW ALONG WITH PROLONGED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...FRAZIER/SHALLENBERGER
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