375
FXUS61 KPBZ 161734
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1234 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RAIN RETURNS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CROSSING
COLD FRONT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ON FRIDAY, BEFORE
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
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DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. LOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT, WITH
SOME RISE IN TEMPERATURE LATE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEDNESDAY
- RAIN RETURNS WITH A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT
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A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT OR MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR PRECIP. GUSTY
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WV, GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40-45 MPH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD IN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THURSDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE BY
EVENING. LIMITED JET SUPPORT SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE ASCENT AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW COULD
MIX WITH THE RAIN IN COLD ADVECTION BEFORE INITIALLY TAPERING
OFF AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
CURRENT QPF PROGS RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 0.75. WITH THE CURRENT
SNOWPACK WATER EQUIVALENT RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.4 INCHES, NO
HYDRO CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN
- QUICK COLD-SHOT ON FRIDAY
- DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY
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THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP AND COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
THREAT TO ENGAGE. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS NBM PROBS FOR JUST 1 INCH OF SNOW IS ONLY A
40% POTENTIAL.
BY THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME, WE GET A REPRIEVE WITH A BRIEF
BREAK IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. BY SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A PROLONGER PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AND MINOR SHORTWAVES CROSSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE BUT THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS WILL BE
IN EFFECT. A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PATTERN TAKES AN
ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE APPROACH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
- MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
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MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE, EXPECTED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 10Z TOMORROW. WINDS WITH THE INCOMING
GRADIENT WILL EXPECT TO SW AT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES
THROUGH TOMORROW AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE MAIN PUNCH OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF FKL AND DUJ. THESE
TERMINALS COULD SEE A TRACE OF PRECIP BUT WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL.
OUTLOOK...
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, RETURNING VFR
CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL TRANSITION TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW ALONG WITH PROLONGED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...FRAZIER/SHALLENBERGER
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