982
FXUS61 KPBZ 171150
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
650 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN BEFORE RAIN RETURNS
LATER TODAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT, CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
-----------------------------------------------------------
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
DOWN TO LOWS OBSERVED THE PAST DAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH FLATLINED, OR HAVE INCREASED AT
SOME LOCATIONS WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD
HOURLY TEMPERATURE RISES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE MENTIONED MOISTURE-STARVED SURFACE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY, BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
JUST BE INCREASED/PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE WITH MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT OR MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WV COULD POSSIBLY SEE GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN RETURNS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
----------------------------------------------------------------
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AND RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING. SNOW WILL
EVENTUALLY MIX WITH THE RAIN IN COLD ADVECTION BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COLDER ON FRIDAY
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY
-------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE MENTIONED FRONT WILL
KEEP LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IN PLAY FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS NBM PROBS
FOR JUST 1 INCH OF SNOW IS ONLY A 40% POTENTIAL.
BY SATURDAY WE GET A REPRIEVE WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES. SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL AND MINOR SHORTWAVES CROSSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE MAIN INFLUENCE BUT THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS WILL BE IN
EFFECT. A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PATTERN TAKES AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
APPROACH.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MVFR DECK TRAVERSING AREA THROUGH 14Z NE OF PIT
- SW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS
- WEAKENING COLD FRONT COULD BRING MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN N OF A
ZZV-LBE LINE
------------------------------------------------------------
PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU IN WARM ADVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
THIS MORNING. A DECREASE IN LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
INITIALLY EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD MVFR STRATOCU CIGS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF A ZZV-LBE
LINE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS CLOUD
LAYER WILL REACH AS THE FRONT CROSSES. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO ALL PORTS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
IN ADDITION, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SW
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT IN RAIN WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
GUSTY WIND AND A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGHING BEHIND THE FRONT, AND COLD WNW FLOW OFF OF THE
GREAT LAKES. GENERAL VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page