872
FXUS61 KPBZ 171714
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1214 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BEFORE RAIN
RETURNS LATER TODAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT, CHANGING OVER
TO SNOW ON FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
-----------------------------------------------------------
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
DOWN TO LOWS OBSERVED THE PAST DAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE PRETTY MUCH FLATLINED, OR HAVE INCREASED AT
SOME LOCATIONS WITH INCREASED WARM ADVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD
HOURLY TEMPERATURE RISES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE MENTIONED MOISTURE-STARVED SURFACE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY, BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
JUST BE INCREASED/PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE WITH MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT OR MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WV COULD POSSIBLY SEE GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN RETURNS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
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A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AND RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THOUGH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING. SNOW WILL
EVENTUALLY MIX WITH THE RAIN IN COLD ADVECTION BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AFTER FROPA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND COLDER ON FRIDAY
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY
-------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE MENTIONED FRONT WILL
KEEP LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IN PLAY FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS NBM PROBS
FOR JUST 1 INCH OF SNOW IS ONLY A 40% POTENTIAL.
BY SATURDAY WE GET A REPRIEVE WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES. SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL AND MINOR SHORTWAVES CROSSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE MAIN INFLUENCE BUT THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS WILL BE IN
EFFECT. A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PATTERN TAKES AN ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
APPROACH.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY S-SW WIND DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
- A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FKL AND DUJ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THURSDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
AREAS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION REDEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO FKL AND DUJ THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS BEEN ERODING
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, SO IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT THIS LAYER
WILL ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF I-80 THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS. GUSTY SW WIND WILL CONTINUE WITH MIXING AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS VFR
FOR ALL PORTS OVERNIGHT.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTH WIND SHOULD ALSO GUST FROM
15-20KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN INCREASES. KEPT LLWS OUT
OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, AS IT APPEARS GUSTS WILL BEGIN AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT IN RAIN
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WIND AND A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND COLD WNW FLOW OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES.
GENERAL VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR IS
EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM
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