740
FXUS61 KPBZ 181816
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN AND GUSTY WIND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW FRIDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN RETURNS
- INCREASING WIND GUSTS
- WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE RIDGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV
-----------------------------------------------------------
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CLOUDS WILL TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. AN INITIAL VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE ASCENT,
SUPPORTING THE RAIN. INITIALLY, THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
THE STRONGEST WIND FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT
CROSSES, AN ENHANCED RAIN BAND COULD RESULT IN GUSTS FROM 40 TO
50 MPH MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IF THESE WINDS MATERIALIZE, A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED TO ENHANCE THE
AWARENESS. OTHERWISE, WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUSTAINED GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. UPGRADED TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WHERE SOUNDINGS AND
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 60
MPH GUSTS THERE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT FROPA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIND HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE RIDGES
- GUSTY WIND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
- DRY AND WARMER SATURDAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, BEFORE THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN COLD ADVECTION AFTER FROPA, WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS, THE LAYER IS NOT SATURATED, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. A WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT,
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF I 80 AND ACROSS
MOST OF THE RIDGES. THE FLOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR OPTIMAL LIFT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THOUGH ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY 2
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AFTER FROPA. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE
PROGGED TO DROP TO -14 DEG C BY AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND MIXING, SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS FROM
35 TO 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
HIGHER ADVISORY AND WARNING LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
RIDGES OF PA AND WV. WHILE SOME FREEZING OF STANDING WATER IS
POSSIBLE, THE STRONG WIND AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THIS BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING.
WIND SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES UNDER THE BUILDING HIGH.
THE HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SATURDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, AND WIND BACKS TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MINIMAL CHANCES OF
RAIN AND SNOW NORTH OF PIT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY AND COLDER
WEATHER SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER AND OVERALL LESS ACTIVE PATTERN
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A FLAT RIDGE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGHING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. RELATIVELY
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING, MAINLY TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING
- S WIND INCREASING OVERNIGHT
- RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY
- GUSTY WSW WIND CONTINUES FRIDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN
RAIN POTENTIAL THIS EVENING, THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
GUSTY S WIND WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. DETERIORATION TO MVFR IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH INCREASING SATURATION WITH THE RAIN. THERE COULD ALSO BE
STRONG (35-40KT) GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, SO INCLUDED
A TEMPO LINE IN THE TAF FOR THIS SCENARIO.
A WSHFT TO THE WSW IS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA, WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND MIXING. THE RAIN SHOULD ALSO TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THOUGH
LOCAL IFR VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER.
OUTLOOK...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH VFR RETURNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH A RELAXING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PIT ON SUNDAY IN COLD NW FLOW. VFR
RETURNS MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, BEFORE A WARM FRONT RETURNS
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR WVZ512-513.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...WM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page