782
FXUS61 KPBZ 190006
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
706 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN AND GUSTY WIND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW FRIDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN RETURNS
- INCREASING WIND GUSTS
- WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE RIDGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV
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00Z UPDATE: A COLD FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA ADVANCING
EASTWARD. ALONG THIS LINE, GUSTS UP TO 51 MPH HAVE JUST RECENTLY
BEEN NOTED AT KFWA IN FORT WAYNE WITH MORE GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50
MPH. HOW WELL THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL DETERMINE IF WE WILL OBSERVE SIMILAR GUSTS ACROSS OUR
REGION. HI-RES MODELS TEND TO FAVOR SOME WEAKENING OF THE LINE
AS IT NEARS PITTSBURGH AND AT THIS TIME, GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH SEEM
MOST LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS AND FUTURE RADAR TRENDS. IF NEEDED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW:
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CLOUDS WILL TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. AN INITIAL VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE ASCENT,
SUPPORTING THE RAIN. INITIALLY, THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
THE STRONGEST WIND FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT
CROSSES, AN ENHANCED RAIN BAND COULD RESULT IN GUSTS FROM 40 TO
50 MPH MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IF THESE WINDS MATERIALIZE, A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED TO ENHANCE THE
AWARENESS. OTHERWISE, WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUSTAINED GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. UPGRADED TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WHERE SOUNDINGS AND
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 60
MPH GUSTS THERE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT FROPA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIND HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE RIDGES
- GUSTY WIND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
- DRY AND WARMER SATURDAY
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THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, BEFORE THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN COLD ADVECTION AFTER FROPA, WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS, THE LAYER IS NOT SATURATED, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. A WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT,
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF I 80 AND ACROSS
MOST OF THE RIDGES. THE FLOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR OPTIMAL LIFT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THOUGH ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY 2
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AFTER FROPA. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE
PROGGED TO DROP TO -14 DEG C BY AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND MIXING, SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS FROM
35 TO 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
HIGHER ADVISORY AND WARNING LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
RIDGES OF PA AND WV. WHILE SOME FREEZING OF STANDING WATER IS
POSSIBLE, THE STRONG WIND AND DRY ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THIS BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THIS
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING.
WIND SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES UNDER THE BUILDING HIGH.
THE HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SATURDAY AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, AND WIND BACKS TO THE SOUTH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MINIMAL CHANCES OF
RAIN AND SNOW NORTH OF PIT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY AND COLDER
WEATHER SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER AND OVERALL LESS ACTIVE PATTERN
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK
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MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A FLAT RIDGE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGHING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS. RELATIVELY
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING, MAINLY TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN, RESTRICTIONS, AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY; GUSTY WSW WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
- WINDS SETTLE AND VFR GRADUALLY RETURNS TO MOST AREAS OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
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MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z. MAINTAINED TEMPOS IN AREA TAFS
TO REFLECT THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THIS LINE AS IT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. ITS PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED BY A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HEAVIER RAIN, LOWER CIGS/VIS, AND A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO MORE WESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE,
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN LINGER AS COLD ADVECTION BEGINS
TO DROP TEMPERATURES. A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS FRIDAY
MORNING AS THERMAL PROFILES DROP BELOW FREEZING WHILE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BREEZY.
OUTLOOK...
SNOW SHOWERS END AND VFR RETURNS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. WIND SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH A RELAXING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND MAINLY NORTH OF PIT IN COLD NW FLOW. VFR RETURNS
MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, BEFORE A WARM FRONT RETURNS
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR WVZ512-513.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM/AK
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/WM
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