002
FXUS61 KPBZ 190617
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
MORNING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LINGERING RAIN OVER TO
SNOW AS TEMPERATURE GENERALLY FALLS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
GUSTY WIND THAT IS STRONGEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PEAK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MAINTAIN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH LOW PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE MODERATION AND PERIODIC RAIN IS FAVORED NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG FRONT AND AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON
- WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT TIL MIDNIGHT
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A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT IS BEGINNING TO TILT NEGATIVELY
AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL PUSH A
NOTABLE SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD THIS MORNING. BROAD JET
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS FAVORS A SWATH OF RAIN
PROGRESSING EAST THAT COULD EXHIBIT EMBEDDED ENHANCEMENT
COURTESY OF THE ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT. REACHING
EASTERN OH AS OF 1245AM BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY 5AM, THIS
NARROW BAND FEATURE MAY ACCELERATE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE AND CAUSE LOCALIZED/BRIEF 40-50MPH GUSTS AS NOTED BY A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
AREAL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHARPLY DECLINES BY MID MORNING
WITH THE EXITING SURFACE COLD FRONT BUT REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LATTER CROSSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH NOON AS
TEMPERATURE FALLS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY; MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES
AND WARM/WET SURFACES MEAN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS GENERALLY
LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES AND WILL BE LIGHT (MORE ON THIS IN A
MOMENT). TWO ASPECTS ARE OF CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS:
1) STRONG WIND (DUE TO TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER) THAT WILL GUST 25-40 MPH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
BETWEEN 40-55 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (AND OVER 58 MPH FOR
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY. WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING
HEADLINES HIGHLIGHT HIGHER CONFIDENCE LOCATIONS FOR
IMPACT/SPEEDS THAT WILL DECLINE TONIGHT AS MIXING WANES.
2) CAA AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT PLUS ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE WV HIGH TERRAIN THAT COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, STRONG WIND SHOULD KEEP SLRS CLOSER
TO 10:1 (REDUCING MODELING SNOW AMOUNTS) WHILE WARM SURFACES
LIMITS EARLY SNOW FALL WHICH MAY REDUCE OVERALL IMPACTS.
VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE LIKELY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN GREATER IMPACTS
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER HEADLINES.
CROSSING HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE CHARACTERIZES THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY, LEADING TO DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS
AND FALLING WIND GUSTS. SW TO NE CLEARING CLOUDS PLUS COLD
ADVECTION MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURE SATURDAY
- FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY RETURNS COOL AIR BUT LIMITED
PRECIPITATION
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WESTERN GREAT LAKES TROUGHING WILL AID IN HEIGHT RISES WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THOUGH
MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT ENSURES INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE,
WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURE
MODERATION THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE REGION REMAINS DRY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY BE TIED TO SOME LAKE ERIE ENHANCEMENT AMID
COLD ADVECTION AND ONLY IMPACT NORTHWEST PA. OTHERWISE, THE
REGION'S TEMPERATURE WILL AGAIN FALL AROUND 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
THE DAILY AVERAGE WITH BREEZY WINDS THAT RESULT IN WIND CHILL
VALES IN THE TEENS (NORTHWEST PA AND HIGHER TERRAIN) AND 20S
(REST OF THE FORECAST REGION).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURE MODERATION FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE NEXT
WEEK
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORM OF RAIN
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ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS STRONGLY FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AND THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA; THIS PLACES THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
IT IS A PATTERN THAT IS HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH RISING
TEMPERATURE THAT WILL BE COMFORTABLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
WITH FURTHER POTENTIAL RISES PENDING ON RIDGE EVOLUTION
EASTWARD. THE PATTERN ALSO LENDS TO LITTLE TO NO THREATS FOR
IMPACTFUL WEATHER (VIA WIND OR WINTRY MIX) VARIETIES. THE MAIN
DISCREPANCIES THAT CREATE UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENTS ACROSS THE RIDGE AXIS THAT MAY PORTEND TO
CERTAIN PERIODS MORE LIKELY RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN
(OR LIGHT SNOW IF IT CROSSES OVERNIGHT) AND THE DEGREE OF
WARMING EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN, RESTRICTIONS, AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY; GUSTY WSW WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
- WINDS SETTLE AND VFR GRADUALLY RETURNS TO MOST AREAS OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
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A SWATH OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND VFR CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY
DROP TO MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SUCH AS FKL AND DUJ WILL SEE BELOW IFR IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.
THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL SET IN BY 10Z AT THE OTHER TERMINALS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY OR JUST AFTER
DAWN AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN PERSIST ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR CIGS OR
LOWER ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WINDS SHIFT DIRECTION THROUGH THE
DAY, THE SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL THEN COME TO AN END. MUCH OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE BACK TO VFR BY 00Z.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
AND THE SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY 11Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY NORTH OF
PIT IN COLD NW FLOW. VFR RETURNS MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE,
BEFORE A WARM FRONT RETURNS RESTRICTION POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ512-513.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ514.
SYNOPSIS...FRAZIER
NEAR TERM...FRAZIER
SHORT TERM...FRAZIER
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...CERMAK/WM
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