412
FXUS61 KPBZ 200441
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1141 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIND GUSTS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. LIMITED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DIMINISHING WIND AND CESSATION OF SNOW ENDS THREATS FOR
OVERNIGHT PERIOD
- SINGLE DIGIT TO TEEN WIND CHILL REMAINS
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY IS AIDING IN THE CESSATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
DIMINISHING WIND GUSTS, NOTABLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS
THOSE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH
WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL FEATURE DECREASING CLOUD
COVER WITH A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING OVER NORTHWEST PA. AIR
TEMPERATURE IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES (NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE) WILL FEEL LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS VIA WIND
CHILL WITH LINGERING WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURE SATURDAY
- PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
- PASSING COLD FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
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DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY
PRECIPITATION MAY BE TIED TO SOME LAKE ERIE ENHANCEMENT AMID
COLD ADVECTION AND ONLY IMPACT NORTHWEST PA. SUNDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HEAVY
CLOUD COVERAGE.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES ON CHRISTMAS.
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THERE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH ENSUING UPPER RIDGING. ALL THE WHILE, THERE IS
ALSO CONFIDENCE IN A QUICK SHORTWAVE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH.
WITH A "MOST LIKELY" ONSET TIME MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS SNOW BEFORE WARMER AIR CHANGES OVER
CHANCES TO ALL RAIN BY TUESDAY. CHANCES OF SEEING ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ONLY 30% TO 50% FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR FOR NOW
AND LESS ELSEWHERE. CHANCES OR RAIN OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT SNOW
HAVE A >75% CHANCE OF BEING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, SO
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ANY LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO
OF SNOW IMPACTS WOULD RELY ON AN UNDER- REPRESENTATION OF
RIDGING AND A MORE SOUTHERN LOW TRACK. AT THIS TIME, THIS
REMAINS VERY UNLIKELY.
A BRIEF PAUSE IN RIDGING IS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SIMILAR TO TUESDAY
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE). RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS) WITH MOST ENSEMBLES HINTING
THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE, THOUGH TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
THIS STILL REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW.
MOST ENSEMBLES HAVE THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW SOMETIME BETWEEN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH LOW QPF (LESS THAN 0.5
INCHES). WHAT DOES REMAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, IS THAT
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. SO, CHANCES OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS SEEM NULL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN INTO THE NEW YEAR, WITH MOST
ENSEMBLES SHOWING A RETURN TO EASTERN TROUGHING IN RESPONSE TO A
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE (~50%). BUT A COUPLE OF OTHER CLUSTERS
CONTINUE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK (25%), WHILE
OTHER FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF EASTERN RIDGING (25%). THIS LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN IS REFLECTED BEYOND THE
FORECASTS PERIOD IN THE CPC 8-14 DAY AND 3-4 WEEK OUTLOOKS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS (MVFR CIGS/VIS) NEAR FKL/DUJ
- GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
- VFR GRADUALLY RETURNS TO MOST AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
- LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR PA RIDGES TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING
------------------------------------------------------------
SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. FKL/DUJ WILL LIKELY HOLD ON TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
06Z DUE TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE.
WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z TO 00Z SATURDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
WIND WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE PA RIDGES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IMPACTING LBE. THE CHANCE FOR LLWS WILL DECREASE
BY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
A PASSING SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
COULD REDUCE CIGS NORTH OF PIT BRIEFLY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME AROUND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN/88
NEAR TERM...FRAZIER
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...MILCAREK
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/LUPO
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