049
FXUS61 KPBZ 051203
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
703 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
- WARMING TREND KICKS OFF MONDAY
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A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE GLANCES THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THIS ACTIVITY, CURRENTLY MOVING PAST DETROIT AND TOLEDO, ISN'T
GETTING SNOW TO THE SURFACE AT EITHER OF THOSE LOCATIONS. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS BY SUNRISE AND USHERS IN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES DURING THE DAY HELP TO KICK OFF A WARMING
TREND, SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL REACHING INTO THE 40S
SOUTH OF US-422 AND THE UPPER 30S NORTH. PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A REINFORCEMENT OF CLOUDS
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. WITH MORE STOUT
CLOUD COVERAGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS
- TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS
----------------------------------------------------------------
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE, CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 12Z TUESDAY,
SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SET TO TAKE A PATH TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. THE TYPE IS SET TO BE VIRTUALLY ALL RAIN, THANKS TO LEADING
WARM ADVECTION THAT WILL PUSH 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND +5C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HREF AND CAMS SEEM TO BE LESS BULLISH ON EARLY
PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL, WITH MOST HOLDING OFF ONSET UNTIL 18Z OR SO.
EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL IN THE OVERRUNNING
PATTERN, THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME; IT
IS PROBABLY NOT WORTH CONTINUING THE MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT. QPF
WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. 50/50 PROBABILITIES OF 0.25 INCH OF
RAIN GENERALLY LIE NORTH OF US-422, WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY END UP IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A
SECONDARY WEAKER 500MB WAVE KEEPING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW LAKE
ENHANCEMENT MAY BRIEFLY AID BACKSIDE COVERAGE AS WELL, BUT
PRECIPITATION CUTOFF WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE HEIGHT RISES AND WARM
ADVECTION HELP TO ERODE CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT LOWS, CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAT
COULD HAVE VARYING IMPACTS
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES
- POTENTIALLY TURNING COLDER THIS WEEKEND, WITH SNOW RETURNING
TO THE FORECAST
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING PROVIDES DRY AND WARM WEATHER
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THAT, DETAILS BECOME A
LITTLE MURKIER.
A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES HEADS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY, AND THEN IMPACTS OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH, AS
WELL AS IN THE OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD, WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK GENERALLY TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER, STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS THROW THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE, FRONTAL TIMING, AND JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET
INTO QUESTION. NEVERTHELESS, PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. OVERALL
TOTALS STILL APPEAR TO NOT BE HIGHLY IMPACTFUL; NBM 48-HOUR
PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OR MORE TOP OUT AT 30-40% IN EASTERN
OHIO.
THEN, A WEEKEND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES APPEAR LIKELY, BUT
AGAIN, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. ALSO IN QUESTION IS THE STRENGTH AND
PROGRESS OF FOLLOWUP MID-LEVEL TROUGHING THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AMOUNT OF COOLING AND PRECIPITATION DURATION. THE REAPPEARANCE
OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE LIKELY, AS DOES A RETURN OF MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF
THE TROUGH AND ALSO THE AMOUNT OF LAKE INVOLVEMENT, POTENTIAL
SNOW TOTALS DO SHOW A RANGE THAT COULD INCLUDE HEADLINE-WORTHY
SCENARIOS. MUCH NEEDS TO BE DETERMINED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY
- RESTRICTIONS RETURN NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN APPROACHES THE AREA
------------------------------------------------------------
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY UNDER PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
DECKS AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WARM ADVECTION. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS A SIGNAL IN ENSEMBLES THAT SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS
RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, NAMELY AT FKL AND DUJ. THE NBM ONLY SUGGESTS
A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING (LESS THAN 20% SOUTH OF
I-80), BUT THE HREF IS MUCH BOLDER WITH A 70-90 PERCENT CHANCE
AT FKL/DUJ AND A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALL AROUND AT FKL/DUJ, OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT THOSE TERMINALS PRIOR TO 12Z TUESDAY
WHILE OMITTING IT ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...CERMAK
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