981
FXUS61 KPBZ 052056
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
356 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
PASSING LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE THURSDAY THEN GIVES WAY TO ROUNDS OF RAIN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY THROUGH TONIGHT
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS
---------------------------------------------------------------
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON HAS KICKSTARTED A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN NEARLY A WEEK. OVERALL A RATHER PLEASANT REST OF THE
AFTERNOON IS IN STORE, WITH PEEKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT, DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHILE REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING FARTHER SOUTH. CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND BEGINS TO
LOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
OUR EAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HOLD
----------------------------------------------------------------
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH AN INITIAL
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE MOIST ADVECTION
RAISING PWATS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE, LIMITED FORCING WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WHERE TOTAL QPF IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
0.25" (70-100% FOR MOST LOCATIONS). AREA TEMPERATURE WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE DEGREE OF WARMING IS LIKELY TIED TO HOW
LATE PRECIPITATION ONSET OCCURS (LATER TRANSLATES TO HIGHER
READINGS).
EXITING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY SAVE FOR ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG UPSLOPE LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT BASICALLY RETURNS
THE AREA AIRMASS TO THAT SEE TODAY (MONDAY) AND KEEP TEMPERATURE
ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM MAJORITY OF THURSDAY
- WIDESPREAD RAIN FAVORED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
- IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED TO INCREASED WIND GUSTS, PENDING LOW
TRACK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING EASTERN CONUS
RIDGING BEING ENCROACHED BY A INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGH
CHARACTERIZES THAT LATE WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD. FOR
THURSDAY, EASTERN CONUS RIDGING DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE COASTLINE FOSTERS STRONG WARM, MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RISING AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THEREAFTER, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS WAVES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
EVENTUALLY, THE DEEPENING/PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW PRIOR TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS A PATTERN SHIFT LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK FEATURING MORE LAKE-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AMID TEMPERATURE FALLING BACK NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
THAT IS THE BROAD OUTLOOK FOR THE LONG RANGE BUT VARIANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH ON PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC DETAILS, WHICH COULD
IMPACT THINGS LIKE COLD FRONTAL TIMING (AND SUBSEQUENT
TEMPERATURE FALLS) OR WET/DRY PERIODS WITHIN THIS LONGER
DURATION EVENT. ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE
THESE VARIANCES, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 1" OVER THE
DURATION REMAINS LOW (20-40%) AS THE HIGHER QPF AXIS LIKELY
REMAINS WEST, MITIGATING FLOOD CONCERNS (EVEN WITH SNOWPACK
MELT). SNOW POTENTIAL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM (SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY) APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WELL, WITH ONLY 15-30%
PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 1" IN 24 HOURS. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE/TRENDS WILL BE ON AREA WIND
GUSTS. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER GUSTS AT HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKE EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, BUT WIDESPREAD
CONCERNS WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH/POSITIONING OF SURFACE LOW AND
TIMING OF DEEPER MIXING.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY
- RESTRICTIONS RETURN NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN APPROACHES THE AREA
------------------------------------------------------------
AREAWIDE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING UNDER PASSING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD DECKS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THEIR INFREQUENT NATURE PRECLUDES A MENTION IN ANY PREVAILING
GROUPS IN THE TAFS. CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER TOWARDS THE END OF
THE CURRENT 24-HR TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AT FKL/DUJ AND 15Z
ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS WELL, WITH THE ONLY CURRENT MENTION AT FKL/DUJ AFTER
16Z AND IN THE 30-HR PIT TAF, BUT NOT AT OTHER TERMINALS SINCE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCUR AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO END THE WORK WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRAZIER
NEAR TERM...CERMAK/AK
SHORT TERM...FRAZIER
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...CERMAK/WM/AK
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