805
FXUS61 KPBZ 060156
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
856 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
PASSING LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH
LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE THURSDAY THEN GIVES WAY TO ROUNDS OF RAIN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY TONIGHT
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS
---------------------------------------------------------------
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WHILE REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING FARTHER SOUTH. CLOUD COVER THICKENS AND BEGINS TO
LOWER TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
OUR EAST AND WE BEGIN TO SEE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH POP BUT LOW QPF RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HOLD
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WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH AN INITIAL
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT ARRIVING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE MOIST ADVECTION
RAISING PWATS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE, LIMITED FORCING WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WHERE TOTAL QPF IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
0.25" (70-100% FOR MOST LOCATIONS). AREA TEMPERATURE WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE DEGREE OF WARMING IS LIKELY TIED TO HOW
LATE PRECIPITATION ONSET OCCURS (LATER TRANSLATES TO HIGHER
READINGS).
EXITING SHORTWAVE AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY SAVE FOR ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
ALONG UPSLOPE LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH. WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT BASICALLY RETURNS
THE AREA AIRMASS TO THAT SEE TODAY (MONDAY) AND KEEP TEMPERATURE
ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM MAJORITY OF THURSDAY
- WIDESPREAD RAIN FAVORED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
- IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED TO INCREASED WIND GUSTS, PENDING LOW
TRACK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING EASTERN CONUS
RIDGING BEING ENCROACHED BY A INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGH
CHARACTERIZES THAT LATE WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD. FOR
THURSDAY, EASTERN CONUS RIDGING DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE COASTLINE FOSTERS STRONG WARM, MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RISING AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THEREAFTER, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS WAVES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
EVENTUALLY, THE DEEPENING/PASSAGE OF A SURFACE LOW PRIOR TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS A PATTERN SHIFT LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK FEATURING MORE LAKE-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AMID TEMPERATURE FALLING BACK NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
THAT IS THE BROAD OUTLOOK FOR THE LONG RANGE BUT VARIANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH ON PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC DETAILS, WHICH COULD
IMPACT THINGS LIKE COLD FRONTAL TIMING (AND SUBSEQUENT
TEMPERATURE FALLS) OR WET/DRY PERIODS WITHIN THIS LONGER
DURATION EVENT. ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE
THESE VARIANCES, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 1" OVER THE
DURATION REMAINS LOW (20-40%) AS THE HIGHER QPF AXIS LIKELY
REMAINS WEST, MITIGATING FLOOD CONCERNS (EVEN WITH SNOWPACK
MELT). SNOW POTENTIAL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM (SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY) APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WELL, WITH ONLY 15-30%
PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 1" IN 24 HOURS. THE ONLY POTENTIAL
IMPACT BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE/TRENDS WILL BE ON AREA WIND
GUSTS. THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER GUSTS AT HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKE EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, BUT WIDESPREAD
CONCERNS WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH/POSITIONING OF SURFACE LOW AND
TIMING OF DEEPER MIXING.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT
- MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS
RAIN TO THE REGION
------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER PATCHY MVFR-LOW VFR STRATOCU NORTH OF PIT EXITS AROUND
MIDNIGHT, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CROSS THE AREA UNDER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, AS CIGS DECREASE TO MVFR,
AND EVENTUALLY IFR, FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE LOW CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, AS
A WSHFT TO THE WSW OCCURS AS THE LOW PULLS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION. VFR
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A SERIES OF CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRAZIER
NEAR TERM...CERMAK/88/AK
SHORT TERM...FRAZIER
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...WM
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