762
FXUS61 KPBZ 061854
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
154 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
- WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
---------------------------------------------------------------
LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR
HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME, AS NOTED WITH
VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING (DESPITE THE HIGH
PWAT) AND BETTER LIFT TO THE NORTH, CLOSER TO THE LOW ITSELF. SOME
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN THE TERRAIN BUT EVEN SO, PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THE
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.25" IN THE 30-50% RANGE FOR
TERRAIN AND COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80 CLOSER TO THE LOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING; MOSTLY DRY
THEREAFTER THROUGH THURSDAY
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HOLD
----------------------------------------------------------------
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD RETURNING A PERIOD OF
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP
COULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND IN THE TERRAIN TOWARD SUNRISE,
WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION, BUT SHOULD END WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE COOLER THAN
TODAY'S HIGHS, THOUGH STILL WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ENSUING. WHILE LOWS WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE 30'S, THAT IS NOT EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS 850HPA
TEMPS REACH 8-10C. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ALSO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40'S - MID 50'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THERE REMAIN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EJECTING OUT
OF THE MIDWEST AND LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME, THE NBM BRINGS POPS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THOUGH
THIS COULD SLOW IF THE TROUGH IS DEEPER LIKE SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
- EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADS TO SEASONABLE CHILL RETURNING
WITH LIMITED SNOW POTENTIAL
- IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED TO INCREASED WIND GUSTS, PENDING LOW
TRACK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, LIKELY
CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, AND THEN CROSSING THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY. EXTENDED MODEL
SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THIS LARGE-SCOPE PATTERN THOUGH
THERE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SHORTWAVES
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE WEEKEND,
ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, PROMISES A RETURN
TO A MORE SEASONABLE CHILL AND PERHAPS LAKE- SUPPORTED SNOW
SUNDAY.
DESPITE SOME OF THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE, THE
OVERALL TREND DOES NOT APPEAR TO SHOW ANY TIMEFRAME THAT
NECESSITATES HEADLINES FOR IMPACTS. 72-HOUR PROBABILITIES OF
MORE THAN ONE INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY
30 PERCENT OR LESS ON THE NBM. THIS SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF WATER CONCERNS, EVEN WHEN TAKING MELTING SNOW INTO ACCOUNT.
FOLLOWUP SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS SIMILARLY
UNIMPRESSIVE; PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OVER THAT PERIOD
TOP OUT AT 20-30 PERCENT NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LAKE INFLUENCES MAY BOOST THE NORTHERN TOTALS SOMEWHAT,
BUT AT THIS TIME, IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION IS STILL A LESS LIKELY
OUTCOME. THE LONE EXCEPTION COULD BE WIND GUSTS THIS WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHER RIDGES POSSIBLY SEEING APPRECIABLE PEAK VALUES. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONCERNS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH, TRACK, AND
TIMING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, BUT SUCH OUTCOMES DO SEEM TO BE
IN THE PROBABILITY SPACE AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- AREA-WIDE VFR EXPECTED BEFORE RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY PM
- MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
BRINGS RAIN TO THE REGION
------------------------------------------------------------
RAINFALL AND/OR DRIZZLE IS BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
CIGS DEGRADE FIRST TO MVFR THEN IFR. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, HOWEVER, LOW CIGS (IFR/LIFR) AND POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE COULD LOWER VIS FURTHER. WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINS TO WIND DOWN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN DRY ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW
MORNING, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MOST PORTS WILL BE LIFR (CIGS AND
VIS). THESE LOW CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS UNDER A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FASTER
THAN CEILINGS, SINCE LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. A 30-35KT
JET SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FROM 20Z TUESDAY - 04Z WEDNESDAY WHICH
COULD BRING LLWS TO SOME LOCATIONS. THIS SHEAR IS VERY SCATTERED AND
SHORT-LIVED AT THIS TIME LLWS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK... VFR RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN RETURNS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...34
NEAR TERM...34
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM...34/CL
AVIATION...LUPO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page