183
FXUS61 KPBZ 070016
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSING LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
- WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
---------------------------------------------------------------
..6PM UPDATE..
LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND MOISTURE OVER EXISTING SNOW PACKS HAS
RESULTED IN PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. FOG
IS LARGELY ISOLATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAVE I-80, WHERE
THERE IS A DEEPER SNOWPACK AND GUSTIER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ANY DENSE FOG MENTIONS, WITH AREAL DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE SHOULD WIND NOT KEEP VISIBILITY ABOVE 1/4 MILE AREAL.
THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE IF THE WIND IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP VIS UP. IF THERE IS A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG, IT
WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF, WITH HREF PROBS HIGHEST BETWEEN NOW AND
MIDNIGHT (40% TO 70% CHANCE) BEFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIND.
.. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ..
LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR
HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE MORE THAN DRIZZLE AT THIS TIME, AS NOTED WITH
VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBS. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE GENERALLY LACKING (DESPITE THE HIGH
PWAT) AND BETTER LIFT TO THE NORTH, CLOSER TO THE LOW ITSELF. SOME
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IN THE TERRAIN BUT EVEN SO, PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THE
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 0.25" IN THE 30-50% RANGE FOR
TERRAIN AND COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80 CLOSER TO THE LOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING; MOSTLY DRY
THEREAFTER THROUGH THURSDAY
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HOLD
----------------------------------------------------------------
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD RETURNING A PERIOD OF
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP
COULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND IN THE TERRAIN TOWARD SUNRISE,
WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION, BUT SHOULD END WITH
DIURNAL MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN
IN NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE COOLER THAN
TODAY'S HIGHS, THOUGH STILL WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ENSUING. WHILE LOWS WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE 30'S, THAT IS NOT EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS 850HPA
TEMPS REACH 8-10C. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ALSO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40'S - MID 50'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THERE REMAIN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EJECTING OUT
OF THE MIDWEST AND LIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME, THE NBM BRINGS POPS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THOUGH
THIS COULD SLOW IF THE TROUGH IS DEEPER LIKE SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
- EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADS TO SEASONABLE CHILL RETURNING
WITH LIMITED SNOW POTENTIAL
- IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED TO INCREASED WIND GUSTS, PENDING LOW
TRACK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, LIKELY
CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, AND THEN CROSSING THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY. EXTENDED MODEL
SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THIS LARGE-SCOPE PATTERN THOUGH
THERE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SHORTWAVES
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE WEEKEND,
ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, PROMISES A RETURN
TO A MORE SEASONABLE CHILL AND PERHAPS LAKE- SUPPORTED SNOW
SUNDAY.
DESPITE SOME OF THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE, THE
OVERALL TREND DOES NOT APPEAR TO SHOW ANY TIMEFRAME THAT
NECESSITATES HEADLINES FOR IMPACTS. 72-HOUR PROBABILITIES OF
MORE THAN ONE INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY
30 PERCENT OR LESS ON THE NBM. THIS SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF WATER CONCERNS, EVEN WHEN TAKING MELTING SNOW INTO ACCOUNT.
FOLLOWUP SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS SIMILARLY
UNIMPRESSIVE; PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OVER THAT PERIOD
TOP OUT AT 20-30 PERCENT NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LAKE INFLUENCES MAY BOOST THE NORTHERN TOTALS SOMEWHAT,
BUT AT THIS TIME, IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATION IS STILL A LESS LIKELY
OUTCOME. THE LONE EXCEPTION COULD BE WIND GUSTS THIS WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHER RIDGES POSSIBLY SEEING APPRECIABLE PEAK VALUES. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONCERNS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH, TRACK, AND
TIMING OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, BUT SUCH OUTCOMES DO SEEM TO BE
IN THE PROBABILITY SPACE AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MVFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
- RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR FKL/DUJ
- FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING IN WAVES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. CIGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR DUE TO A MOISTURE
BOUNDARY LAYER. AS COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE WEST BETWEEN
06Z AND 10Z EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AND REMAIN IFR TO LIFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT TERMINALS.
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE MAY SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW OR A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO SNOW AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AT DUJ AND FKL. AS WINDS
VEER MORE WESTERLY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DRIER
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY.
CLEARING CONDITIONS IN EASTERN OHIO MAY ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK... A LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
TERMINALS WITH LOW CIGS/VIS OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...34
NEAR TERM...34/MILCAREK
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM...34/CL
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page