494
FXUS61 KPBZ 070621
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
121 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER IN SPOTS THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES TO OUR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
WITH A COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING; DRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- WIND GUSTS SLACKEN BY SUNRISE.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
---------------------------------------------------------------
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EASTERN END OF LAKE PROCEEDS EASTWARD
TODAY AND OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHES
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE REMAIN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT, AND THIS SHOULD LARGELY FOCUS TOWARDS THE TERRAIN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING IN
THE 25-35 MPH RANGE AS A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET CROSSES THE
REGION, WITH STEEP ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PROMOTE
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN RELAXING WIND GUSTS AS THE PREDAWN HOURS CONTINUE.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH SNOW NORTH OF I-80 BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS MORNING, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY SHUT OFF BY LATER THIS MORNING AS
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING DEPARTS THE REGION, WITH FLAT RIDGING
FOLLOWING THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO TAKES
CONTROL, WITH THE CENTER APPROACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS, LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP LOWER CLOUDS IN THE AREA INTO TONIGHT,
BEFORE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPS TO ERODE THE
STRATOCUMULUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LARGELY DRY THURSDAY
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
- RAIN CHANCES RISE THURSDAY NIGHT
----------------------------------------------------------------
HEIGHT RISES OBSERVED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
WITH A CROSSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOUT 10
DEGREES C FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS SUCH,
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB ONCE AGAIN WITH 50 DEGREES LIKELY (> 70%
PROBABILITY) ALL THE WAY UP TO US-422 AND 60 DEGREES A
POSSIBILITY (20-50%, HIGHEST IN THE RIVER VALLEYS) SOUTH OF
I-70.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES EARLY KEEPING THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW AND ADVANCES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. POPS BEGIN TO RISE FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE NEARS AND THE WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. RAIN BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY CLOSER TO SUNRISE
ON FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME. POPS DECLINE
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE.
850MB TEMPS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FRIDAY, BUT AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS SPUR HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARDS EVEN MORE.
AREAS SOUTH OF US-422 SPORT A >50% CHANCE OF STRIKING 60 DEGREES
(CLIMBING AS HIGH AS >90% SOUTH OF I-70). LIKELY RAIN, STOUT
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SETUP VERY WARM NIGHTS BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SEVERAL SITES (PHD/HLG ON THURS
NIGHT AND PHD/HLG/PIT/MGW ON FRI NIGHT) STAND THE CHANCE TO SET
NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN LIKELY INTO SATURDAY
- EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE LEADS TO SEASONABLE CHILL RETURNING
WITH LIMITED SNOW POTENTIAL
- IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED TO INCREASED WIND GUSTS, PENDING LOW
TRACK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A HOST OF TIMING AND DEPTH DISCREPANCIES IN CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES
OPEN THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THE GENERAL PICTURE
REMAINS THAT A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY,
WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH TRAVERSES THE MIDWEST. WEAK CONSENSUS
HAS THE PARENT TROUGH TRAVERSING OUR AREA ON SUNDAY, BUT
CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES FOR SUNDAY CENTER THE TROUGH AS FAR EAST AS
NEW ENGLAND AND AS FAR WEST AS CHICAGO.
OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING AMID THESE DISCREPANCIES REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING RAIN
CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER IN THE WEEKEND RETURNS A SEASONABLE CHILL AND
SUPPORTS LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IN ITS WAKE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ENSEMBLES FAVOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERMS
REMAINS LOW. 72 HOUR RAINFALL PROBABILITIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOW LOW CHANCES, LARGELY BETWEEN 10-40%
CHANCE, FOR TOTALS OVER AN INCH. SIMILARLY, PROBABILITIES FOR
>1 INCH OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT SYSTEM PEAK BETWEEN
20-30% NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER COULD ACTUALLY BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PASSES AND THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
FALL BETWEEN 60-70% IN THE LOWLANDS AND PROBABILITIES FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS CLIMB ABOVE 80% IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
ALL OF THIS COMES DOWN TO THE TIMING, TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW
PRESSURE WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY YET TO BE SEEN, BUT THESE CHANCES
WILL BE MONITORED MOVING FORWARD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MVFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
- RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR FKL/DUJ
- FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE, WILL
LARGELY FOCUS ON THE RIDGES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
WILL RELAX AFTER 09Z AS A LOW-LEVEL JET PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION. AS THE WIND RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES AND COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM THE MVFR
RANGE INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH MGW AND
ZZV PERHAPS ESCAPING WITH LOW MVFR (WHERE HREF IFR PROBABILITIES
REMAIN 40-50 PERCENT, HIGHER TO THE NORTH). SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS MAY RETURN IN DRIZZLE AND MIST, BUT THESE SHOULD
LARGELY AVOID IFR LEVELS.
A LINGERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP IFR OR LOW MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
LIGHT WEST WIND BEHIND THE MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME EROSION
FROM THE SOUTH IS POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
COMMENCES, ARRIVING FIRST AT ZZV AND MGW. DEPENDING ON THIS
CLEARING, FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE REMAINS SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAIN AND MELTING SNOW.
OUTLOOK... A LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
TERMINALS WITH LOW CIGS/VIS OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW CHANCES RETURN
SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/CL
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