412
FXUS61 KPBZ 071926
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
226 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE ENSEMBLES HEADING INTO THE PERIODS WHERE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS MAINLY OVER THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY PERIOD. OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NBM HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THIS CORRELATES WITH
THE OTHER CHANGE IN THE TRENDS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
INCREASED IN SOME CASES AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS WELL, THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT AS WELL AND
WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION TO REGISTER THE HIGHS
THE NBM SHOWS, THE WINDS CERTAINLY MAKE THIS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME COULD BE STRONG.
- WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
- SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME COULD BE STRONG.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EXITING TROUGH AND AN END TO THE
LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN, ALTHOUGH WITH SOME BREAKUP ON THU BUT INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH AN EXTENDED COLD FRONT SOUTH. THE
INCREASED ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE LOW
60S ON FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A POTENTIAL OF SOME ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME,
THE ENSEMBLES ARE GIVING A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER WITH LESS
THAN 10% ON FRIDAY AND AROUND 15% ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTIES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THE WIND POTENTIAL
AND THE UNCERTAINTY WILL MAKE THIS PERIOD ONE TO WATCH FOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY PERIOD
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS. AS MENTIONED IN THE
CHANGES ABOVE, THEIR IS A STRONG UPTICK IN GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
AS THE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH TIME. AS THE
MAIN JET ARRIVES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 45 MPH IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY IS OVER
90%, WITH A MODEST 55% ON THE PA/WV RIDGES. THUS, HAVE MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HWO GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG CONFIDENCE. THE
LOWLANDS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY INDICATE A LOW CONFIDENCE OF
EVEN REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, EVEN WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE,
WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITY, ONLY A FEW
LOCATIONS JUST BARELY SCRAPE THE 46 MPH MARK. THANKFULLY,
THERE'SPLENTY OF TIME TO ANALYZE BEFORE COMMITTING TO A
HEADLINE POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
BY THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH THE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AT 12Z.
WHILE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS, THE NBM
IS SHOWING AROUND A 30% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THE
RIDGES TO THE SOUTH HAVE ABOUT A 15% TO 20% PROB. THERE IS SOME
STATISTICS OF THE NBM SHOWING ROUGHLY 0.10 ACROSS THE AREA AND
WITH A HIGHER RATIO DUE TO THE COLD, THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THE NORTH OR THE RIDGES TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS WELL,
THERE IS SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY OF 15 TO 40 J/KG DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE A SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL
TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES AS IT
SEEMS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS PRESENT.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MVFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS INTO TOMORROW
- RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR FKL/DUJ
- FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THURSDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
MGW IS THE ONLY PORT THAT HAS MID TO HIGH MVFR CIGS WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF PORTS ARE OBSERVING LOW MVFR CIGS ASIDE FROM BVI, FKL
AND DUJ (IFR/LIFR). HREF IFR PROBABILITIES ARE 60% OR HIGHER NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH AND ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY RETURN IN DRIZZLE AND MIST, BUT THESE
SHOULD LARGELY AVOID IFR LEVELS.
A LINGERING SHALLOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE CEILING
RESTRICTIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WEST
WIND. SOME EROSION FROM THE SOUTH IS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES, ARRIVING FIRST AT ZZV
AND MGW. DEPENDING ON THIS CLEARING, FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE REMAINS SATURATED FROM THE RECENT RAIN
AND MELTING SNOW.
OUTLOOK... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY
AND WEAKENS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
A LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY IMPACT TERMINALS WITH LOW
CIGS/VIS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES. SNOW
CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...CL/LUPO
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