970
FXUS61 KPBZ 072309
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
609 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE ENSEMBLES HEADING INTO THE PERIODS WHERE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS MAINLY OVER THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY PERIOD. OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NBM HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THIS CORRELATES WITH
THE OTHER CHANGE IN THE TRENDS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
INCREASED IN SOME CASES AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AS WELL, THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT AS WELL AND
WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AMOUNT OF ADVECTION TO REGISTER THE HIGHS
THE NBM SHOWS, THE WINDS CERTAINLY MAKE THIS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME COULD BE STRONG.
- WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
- SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME COULD BE STRONG.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN EXITING TROUGH AND AN END TO THE
LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN, ALTHOUGH WITH SOME BREAKUP ON THU BUT INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH AN EXTENDED COLD FRONT SOUTH. THE
INCREASED ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE LOW
60S ON FRIDAY WITH A POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A POTENTIAL OF SOME ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME,
THE ENSEMBLES ARE GIVING A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER WITH LESS
THAN 10% ON FRIDAY AND AROUND 15% ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTIES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THE WIND POTENTIAL
AND THE UNCERTAINTY WILL MAKE THIS PERIOD ONE TO WATCH FOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY PERIOD
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS. AS MENTIONED IN THE
CHANGES ABOVE, THEIR IS A STRONG UPTICK IN GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
AS THE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH TIME. AS THE
MAIN JET ARRIVES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 45 MPH IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY IS OVER
90%, WITH A MODEST 55% ON THE PA/WV RIDGES. THUS, HAVE MENTIONED
THIS IN THE HWO GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG CONFIDENCE. THE
LOWLANDS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY INDICATE A LOW CONFIDENCE OF
EVEN REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA, EVEN WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE,
WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITY, ONLY A FEW
LOCATIONS JUST BARELY SCRAPE THE 46 MPH MARK. THANKFULLY,
THERE'SPLENTY OF TIME TO ANALYZE BEFORE COMMITTING TO A
HEADLINE POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
BY THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH THE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AT 12Z.
WHILE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS, THE NBM
IS SHOWING AROUND A 30% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THE
RIDGES TO THE SOUTH HAVE ABOUT A 15% TO 20% PROB. THERE IS SOME
STATISTICS OF THE NBM SHOWING ROUGHLY 0.10 ACROSS THE AREA AND
WITH A HIGHER RATIO DUE TO THE COLD, THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR THE NORTH OR THE RIDGES TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS WELL,
THERE IS SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY OF 15 TO 40 J/KG DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE A SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL
TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT. STAY TUNED AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES AS IT
SEEMS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS PRESENT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH VFR LIKELY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
------------------------------------------------------------
AN OVERCAST AND MOSTLY MVFR DECK IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOWER CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
NORTH OVERNIGHT, CLEARING PORTS TO VFR AS EARLY AT 04Z AT MGW
AND AS LATE AS 18Z AT DUJ AS THE DECK SLOWLY MOVES OUT. THE
EXACT TIMING TO CLEARING OF LOW DECKS IS SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN. IN
AREAS THAT DO CLEAR, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH
RADIATIVE COOLING AND MELTING SNOW IN RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS
IS MORE LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN PORTS, BUT WITH GENERAL SATURATION,
IT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY PORT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FROM WESTERLY EARLY TONIGHT, TO
SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY SETTLING ON SOUTHEASTERLY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, BEFORE ACCELERATING
OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR.
OUTLOOK...
SHEAR MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF MVFR/IFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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