636
FXUS61 KPBZ 080552
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY SEEM TO
HAVE TRIMMED SOME. AMPLE WIND WILL BE AVAILABLE IN AN 850MB JET
BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AREAL SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP
THESE WINDS AND BRING THEM TO THE SURFACE WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW
BUT NON- ZERO, GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
- SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW BUT NON-ZERO, GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER RIDGING BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT RIDING ALONG WAA, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DRY SURFACE LAYER AND MUCH OF THIS EARLY WAA DRIVEN RAIN MAY BE
LOST TO VIRGA. POPS RISE INTO MIDDAY AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. BREAKING INTO THE WARM
SECTOR SUPPLIES STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WHEN PAIRED WITH 850
MB TEMPS BETWEEN 8-10C SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO
THE 60S SOUTH OF US-422.
A STOUT 850 MB JET IS SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LARGELY BOUNDARY PARALLEL WINDS OF 50-60 KTS OFF THE SURFACE.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANY UPDRAFTS WILL BE
ABLE TO EFFICIENTLY TAP THESE WINDS AND MIX THEM TO THE SFC.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO FAVOR A LOW INVERSION KEEPING SFC WIND
FIELDS DETACHED FROM THE AMPLE MAXIMA ABOVE THEM. THUNDER
POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW, FAVORING AREAS WELL SOUTH AND WEST BUT A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER SEEMS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
SWEEP THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE AMPLE LIFT AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE, BUT BY THIS TIME THE 850 JET IS FLEETING EASTWARD AND
WIND POTENTIAL BEGINS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES
ON SUNDAY WITH WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... WIND CONCERNS RETURN SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AREA
WIDE DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION
FAVORS THE PEAK GUSTS BEING SEEN IN EASTERN DOWNSLOPES ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF OUR PA AND WV BORDER RIDGES. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY
REMAIN OVER 90%. THESE PROBABILITIES DROP TO 40-50% FOR OUR PA
RIDGES AND DOWN TO 10-20% ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. EVEN A WINDIER
75TH PERCENTILE SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A FEW MAX GUSTS BETWEEN
40-45 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS
MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED IN THE HWO AS ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS
FOR THIS WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE ON SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY BRINGS
THE RETURN OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S. NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND
LOW SUPPORTS AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOW FROM
ROUGHLY 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN AN INCH
REMAIN HIGHEST (30-40%) IN THE RIDGES AND AROUND 15-25% NORTH OF
I- 80. A REASONABLE SNOWIER SCENARIO MAXIMIZING QPF AND SNOW
COULD YIELD LOW END CHANCES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW BUT IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS. MEAGER INSTABILITY
BUT INSTABILITY NONETHELESS COULD SUPPORT SOME KIND OF BANDED
SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MVFR CLOUD DECK CLEARS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO MORNING.
- IFR/LIFR FOG MOST LIKELY AT ZZV; POTENTIAL EXISTS AT HLG/MGW
AS WELL
- LIGHT WIND TODAY, WITH STRENGTHENING/POTENTIAL LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TONIGHT
------------------------------------------------------------
A DECK OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS IS ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT HLG AND
MGW BY 07Z, AT PIT/AGC/BVI BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z, AND OTHER TAF
SITES THROUGH 12Z. THEREAFTER, ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY LINGERING QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION
GIVEN THE STILL-WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN AND MELTING SNOW.
LOW-LEVEL MIXING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT PERHAPS NOT WEAK
ENOUGH TO PREVENT FORMATION IN SOME CASES, PARTICULARLY IN
EASTERN OHIO. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE
AT ZZV (60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR VISIBILITY ON THE HREF), BUT
LESS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FOR NOW, HAVE PREVAILING IFR/TEMPO
LIFR AT ZZV ONLY, WITH ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP RESTRICTIONS MORE
INTERMITTENT AT HLG AND MGW. LESS CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT
OTHER SITES, BUT IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FROM WESTERLY EARLY TONIGHT, TO
SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY SETTLING ON SOUTHEASTERLY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
BEFORE FRESHENING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER AS A STOUT LOW-
LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
SHEAR MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF MVFR/IFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CL
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