512
FXUS61 KPBZ 081146
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY SEEM TO
HAVE TRIMMED SOME. AMPLE WIND WILL BE AVAILABLE IN AN 850MB JET
BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AREAL SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP
THESE WINDS AND BRING THEM TO THE SURFACE WITH MEAGER
INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW
BUT NON- ZERO, GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
- SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW BUT NON-ZERO, GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER RIDGING BEFORE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT RIDING ALONG
WAA, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY SURFACE LAYER AND MUCH
OF THIS EARLY WAA DRIVEN RAIN MAY BE LOST TO VIRGA. POPS RISE
INTO MIDDAY AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC
WARM FRONT. BREAKING INTO THE WARM SECTOR SUPPLIES STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WHEN PAIRED WITH 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 8-10C
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF US-422.
A STOUT 850 MB JET IS SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LARGELY BOUNDARY PARALLEL WINDS OF 50-60 KTS OFF THE SURFACE.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANY UPDRAFTS WILL BE
ABLE TO EFFICIENTLY TAP THESE WINDS AND MIX THEM TO THE SFC.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO FAVOR A LOW INVERSION KEEPING SFC WIND
FIELDS DETACHED FROM THE AMPLE MAXIMA ABOVE THEM. THUNDER
POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW, FAVORING AREAS WELL SOUTH AND WEST BUT A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER SEEMS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
SWEEP THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE AMPLE LIFT AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE, BUT BY THIS TIME THE 850 JET IS FLEETING EASTWARD AND
WIND POTENTIAL BEGINS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES
ON SUNDAY WITH WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WIND CONCERNS RETURN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW TRAVERSES THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION FAVORS THE PEAK GUSTS BEING
SEEN IN EASTERN DOWNSLOPES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF OUR PA AND WV
BORDER RIDGES. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY REMAIN OVER 90%. THESE PROBABILITIES
DROP TO 40-50% FOR OUR PA RIDGES AND DOWN TO 10-20% ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. EVEN A WINDIER 75TH PERCENTILE SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT
A FEW MAX GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS STILL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED IN THE HWO AS
ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS FOR THIS WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF DAYS
AWAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE ON SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY BRINGS
THE RETURN OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S. NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND
LOW SUPPORTS AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOW FROM
ROUGHLY 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN AN INCH
REMAIN HIGHEST (30-40%) IN THE RIDGES AND AROUND 15-25% NORTH OF
I- 80. A REASONABLE SNOWIER SCENARIO MAXIMIZING QPF AND SNOW
COULD YIELD LOW END CHANCES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW BUT IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS. MEAGER INSTABILITY
BUT INSTABILITY NONETHELESS COULD SUPPORT SOME KIND OF BANDED
SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOME MORNING FOG CLEARING WITH SUNRISE/INCREASED CIRRUS
COVERAGE
- LIGHT WIND TODAY INCREASING TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT
------------------------------------------------------------
SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
STILL-WET GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN AND MELTING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL
MIXING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT PERHAPS NOT WEAK ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FORMATION IN SOME CASES, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AS PER OBSERVATIONS AND NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY. STILL, IMPACTS TO TERMINALS
REMAIN ISOLATED AND FKL/ZZV HAVE SO FAR SEEN THE MOST. FOR NOW,
HAVE PREVAILING IFR/TEMPO LIFR AT DUJ ONLY, WITH MENTION TO IFR
AT FKL AND MGW, AND MVFR AT ZZV AND LBE AS ENOUGH MIXING IS
LIKELY TO KEEP RESTRICTIONS MORE INTERMITTENT AT ZZV AND LBE.
LESS CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT OTHER SITES, BUT IT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND A SHIELD OF CIRRUS
OVERSPREADS FROM THE WEST. VFR WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
TODAY GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEFORE FRESHENING AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER BUT THEN RAMP UP AREAWIDE AS A STOUT
LOW-LEVEL JET APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK...
SHEAR MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF MVFR/IFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...MLB/CL
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