844
FXUS61 KPBZ 082347
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
647 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY HAS LESSENED A BIT MORE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LEADING TO A LESSER CHANCE OF STRONG SHOWERS, LET
ALONE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE WINDS ALOFT HAVE NOT
CHANGED AND THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DOWN SOME SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS IS STILL A POTENTIAL. THE WIND POTENTIAL OF
SUNDAY HAS GENERALLY REMAINED THE SAME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
UPTICK IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY. THE SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL HAS
ALSO BEEN GIVEN A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATION AS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD REACH BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OWING TO THE STRONG WINDS AND STILL SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW
BUT NON- ZERO, GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
2) WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY
WITH WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
3) SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW BUT
NON-ZERO, GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ENSEMBLE TRENDS LEAD TO MAINLY VIRGA
HEADING INTO THE ONSET OF RAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING. IF THERE'S ANY
INDICATION, THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING ADVERTISES QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. IN FACT, THE VERY WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOW AROUND A 40%
POTENTIAL OF 0.01 OR MORE FROM 06Z TO 12Z. CERTAIN MEASURABLE
RAINFALL BEGINS AFTER 12Z. BREAKING INTO THE WARM SECTOR
SUPPLIES STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WHEN PAIRED WITH 850 MB
TEMPS BETWEEN 8-10C SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE
60S SOUTH OF US-422.
A STOUT 850 MB JET IS SET TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LARGELY BOUNDARY PARALLEL WINDS OF 50-60 KTS OFF THE SURFACE.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANY UPDRAFTS WILL BE
ABLE TO EFFICIENTLY TAP THESE WINDS AND MIX THEM TO THE SFC.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO FAVOR A LOW INVERSION KEEPING SFC WIND
FIELDS DETACHED FROM THE AMPLE MAXIMA ABOVE THEM. THUNDER
POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW, FAVORING AREAS WELL SOUTH AND WEST BUT A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER SEEMS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
SWEEP THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE AMPLE LIFT AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
PASSAGE, BUT BY THIS TIME THE 850 JET IS FLEETING EASTWARD AND
WIND POTENTIAL BEGINS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY.
WITH THAT IN MIND, THE SECOND MAIN TROUGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND IN FACT, A SECOND BOUNDARY
SETUP WITH SOME ENSEMBLES SHOWING AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY ON
SATURDAY AS WELL. HERE, ONCE AGAIN, A LOW RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS,
LET ALONE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE NBM DOES GIVE A 15% OF
THUNDER IN THE NORTHERN WV AREA. WITH THE WINDS ALOFT, CERTAINLY
A DAY TO MONITOR FOR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
WIND CONCERNS RETURN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW TRAVERSES THE
REGION. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION FAVORS THE PEAK GUSTS BEING
SEEN IN EASTERN DOWNSLOPES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF OUR PA AND WV
BORDER RIDGES. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY REMAIN OVER 90%. THESE PROBABILITIES
DROP TO 40-50% FOR OUR PA RIDGES AND DOWN TO 10-20% ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. EVEN A WINDIER 75TH PERCENTILE SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT
A FEW MAX GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH IN THE LOWLANDS STILL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS MENTION HAS BEEN CONTINUED IN THE HWO AS
ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS FOR THIS WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF DAYS
AWAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE ON SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY BRINGS
THE RETURN OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S. NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND
LOW SUPPORTS AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOW FROM
ROUGHLY 12Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN AN INCH
SEEM TO HAVE INCREASED A BIT OWING TO THE MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. HERE, A
40-45% PROB OF 1 INCH OR MORE HERE WITH AROUND 30% TO 40% IN THE
RIDGES. A REASONABLE SNOWIER SCENARIO MAXIMIZING QPF AND SNOW
COULD YIELD LOW END CHANCES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW BUT IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS. MEAGER INSTABILITY
BUT INSTABILITY NONETHELESS COULD SUPPORT SOME KIND OF BANDED
SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) LIGHT WIND TODAY INCREASING TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT
2) CIGS LOWER FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN ACCOMPANYING A
WARM FRONT PASSAGE
3) GUSTY WIND FRIDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING IN THE 00-06Z TIME RANGE, BUT CIGS AND VIS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE
OTHERWISE, CONTINUE TO THINK GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN SPORADIC
OVERNIGHT WITH POOR MIXING BENEATH THE 45-55KT LLJ. SHALLOW
MIXING SHOULD ENSUE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY ELIMINATING
THE WIND SHEAR CONCERN. SURFACE GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY VEERING
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY
MORNING, AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL SITES AT VFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AS SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AND NEED
SATURATED, SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING, WITH WIND VEERING
NORTHWESTERLY. MVFR CIGS BECOME MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT FKL/DUJ.
OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/AK
AVIATION...RACKLEY/MLB
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