351
FXUS61 KPBZ 090616
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DAY ONE WINDS HAVE CHANGED WITH INGREDIENTS TRENDING DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS. WAA ADVECTION LOOKS TO OVERRIDE THE WEAKENING
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THE 850MB JET
LOOKS STRONGER IN RECENT RUNS AND SUPPORTS HIGHER WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE BUT STILL LIKELY REMAINING UNTAPPED UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS THE WIND FIELD
QUICKLY SUBSIDES.
WIND AND SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK
FAVORING A WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TUCKER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW
BUT NON- ZERO, GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
2) WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY
WITH WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
3) SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW BUT
NON-ZERO, GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUILDS THROUGH THE FLOW AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. DRY AIR REMAINS
ENTRENCHED EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CURRENT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 25 DEGREES. WINDS SLOWLY BACK AT THE SFC
THROUGH THE MORNING AND WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INCREASE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN
AROUND 8-10C THROUGH THE DAY, COUPLING THIS WITH STOUT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SENDS TEMPERATURES SURGING
INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF US-422.
A STOUT 850 MB JET SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE, SUPPLYING 60-70 KTS OF WIND OFF THE SURFACE. LIMITED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES LITTLE CHANCE THAT
UPDRAFTS BUILD ENOUGH TO TAP THIS WIND FIELD. THUNDER PROBS ARE
LOW BUT NON-ZERO, BEING HIGHEST SOUTH AND WEST. ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT WAA THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDES LITTLE CHANCE TO SEE STRONG WINDS. HREF
MAX CAPE PEAKS NEAR 100 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BETTER FORCING AND MEAGER INSTABILITY COULD PROVIDE A FEW
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS IT DOES, STRONG WIND GUST
CHANCES INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUICKLY. HOWEVER, BY
THIS TIME THE CORE OF THE 850MB JET IS FLEETING EASTWARD AND
MIXING WILL TAP INTO A QUICKLY WEAKENING WIND FIELD. BEHIND THE
FRONT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THESE WINDS AND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED BY SPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
A DEEPER TROUGH ROUNDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER, ALBEIT WEAKER (45-55 KT), 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE PARENT TROUGH. A WNW WIND DIRECTION FAVORS
PEAK GUSTS OCCURING IN EASTERN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ON THE
OPPOSITE SIDE OF OUR PA AND WV BORDER RIDGES. WIND ADVISORY
PROBABILITIES REMAIN OVER 90% IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY AND NEAR
40-50% IN OUR OTHER PA/WV RIDGES. PROBABILITIES IN THE LOWLANDS
PEAK AROUND 10-20% AND ALTHOUGH A FEW MAX GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50
MPH SEEM POSSIBLE A WIND ADVISORY LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR MOST,
EXCLUDING EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY BRINGS
COLD AIR RUSHING BACK IN AND TURNS RAIN OVER TO SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S. NW FLOW BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH SUPPORTS AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SNOW
FROM ROUGHLY 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. AFTER THIS, DRY AIR
STREAMS IN QUICKLY AND BRINGS AN END TO FURTHER SNOW SHOWERS.
AVAILABLE CAPE SUNDAY LOOKS WEAKER IN RECENT RUNS, POSSIBLY
LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR BANDED SNOW SHOWERS CAUSING TRAVEL
ISSUES. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS RISING SOME AND TOTALS
LOOK TO BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW
PEAK BETWEEN 40-60% IN THE PA/WV RIDGES AND ARE AS HIGH AS
20-30% NORTH OF I-80. A REASONABLE SNOWIER SCENARIO MAXIMIZING
THE QPF OUTPUT WOULD POINT TO LOW END CHANCES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO START THE PERIOD.
2) CIGS LOWER THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT RAIN ACCOMPANYING A WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
3) GUSTY WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER NW
FLOW.
------------------------------------------------------------
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
A LOW LEVEL JET IS RESULTING IN A PERIOD OFLOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TO START THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD ENSUE EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY ELIMINATING THE WIND SHEAR CONCERN.
SURFACE GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH
THE DAY AS PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY VEERS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT PASSAGE IN THE 12Z TO
16Z TIMEFRAME. MAINTAINED VFR AT ALL SITES DURING THIS INITIAL
ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN AS SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT TO
START AND THUS SATURATING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER
AND RATES TO BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VISIBILITIES. THERE
IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR TO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS
BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE IN THE MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
BE BETTER SATURATED BY THAT TIME. INTRODUCED PROB30S TO REFLECT
THIS AT MOST TERMINALS. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING, WITH WIND VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS IS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, BUT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS RESTRICTIONS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
UNDER COLD, POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW.
OUTLOOK... ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CERMAK
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