912
FXUS61 KPBZ 091840
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WEAKER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME WITH
LESS CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUST FROM THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS.
THE CSU, CIPS, AND SPC CONTINUE TO SHOW NO INDICATION OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE WINDS REMAIN THE DEFINITE IMPACT ON SUNDAY FOR E
TUCKER COUNTY. THE WIND GUSTS ON THE PA RIDGES CONTINUE TO BE
JUST LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
JUMPED A TAD WITH A STRONG VORT MAX SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA
ADDING TO THE FORCING AND SNOW SQUALL/SNOW BAND POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SATURDAY DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND FLOOD.
2) WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY
WITH WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
3) SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SATURDAY DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND FLOOD.
AS THE WEAKENED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT PASSAGE OF
THE WEAKEN COLD FRONT TO BE JUST BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING WITH
SOME LESSENING OF THE WINDS AFTER 00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE STILL RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER HEADING INTO
TOMORROW WILL PLACE A ROLE IN LESSENING THE IMPACT OF RAINFALL
ARRIVING ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HERE, A MUCH
STRONGER MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE
FORECAST AREA. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER OH VALLEY. THE PARENT LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
THE MAIN JET CORE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THIS WILL BE MORE FOR SUNDAY. THUS,
WILL NOT EXPECT MAJOR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IN
FACT, NBM PROBS ONLY TOSS A 20 TO 30% PROB FOR WIND GUSTS ABOVE
30 MPH. THE SATURDAY PERIOD NOW FALLS IN LINE WITH THE HREF AND
THE HI-RES MODELS. WITH THIS DATA, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WEAKENS
EVEN FURTHER WITH AROUND A 15% PROB OF SFC CAPE GETTING ABOVE
100 J/KG. AS WELL, THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEEMS LOWER
AS WELL WITH THE CONTINUED DRY LAYER IN THE PROFILES OVER
NORTHERN WV. IN FACT, THE HREF FOR PRECIP ONLY GIVES A 30% TO
40% PROB OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH. EVEN THOUGH PWAT CLIMO
STATES THAT LACK OF VEGETATION IN THE WINTER YIELDS TO FLASH
FLOOD ALOT EASIER, YOU STILL NEED AT LEAST AN INCH FOR IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WINDS INCREASE FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE RIDGES ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN E. TUCKER COUNTY.
A DEEPER TROUGH ROUNDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER, ALBEIT WEAKER (45-55 KT), 850MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE PARENT TROUGH. A WNW WIND DIRECTION FAVORS
PEAK GUSTS OCCURING IN EASTERN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ON THE
OPPOSITE SIDE OF OUR PA AND WV BORDER RIDGES. WIND ADVISORY
PROBABILITIES REMAIN OVER 90% IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY AND NEAR
40-50% IN OUR OTHER PA/WV RIDGES. PROBABILITIES IN THE LOWLANDS
PEAK AROUND 10-20% AND ALTHOUGH A FEW MAX GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50
MPH SEEM POSSIBLE A WIND ADVISORY LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR MOST,
EXCLUDING EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SNOW SHOWERS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.
THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE A STRONG MAJOR SHORTWAVE WITH
A STRONG VORT MAX SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STRONG FORCING HERE IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WOULD SUGGEST SOME BANDED
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL AND EVEN SOME SQUALLS POSSIBLE, EVEN
THOUGH THE SURFACE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN WANING OVER THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. THE NBM, WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE HI-RES MODELS
HIGHLIGHTED SOME BANDED AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIP, MOST NOTABLY
OVER THE WV RIDGES. THE NBM MEAN OVER THE WV RIDGES SUGGEST A
40% PROB FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES. IN FACT, THE 25TH PERCENTILE
SHOWS 1 INCH AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE SHOWS 3 INCHES. THE 10TH
AND 90TH SHOW A RESPECTABLE 0 AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THUS HAVE
PUT THE WV RIDGES AS WELL AS THE USUAL SNOW BELT COUNTIES IN THE
HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES.
THE WILDCARD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SNOW BANDS TO OVER
PRODUCE, SOMETHING THAT WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING SHIFTS.
AN ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THERE ARE MANY
QUESTIONS TO BUILD CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER INTO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT
2) GUSTY WIND CONTINUES TODAY
3) WIND RELAXES TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF DRY PERIOD AHEAD OF A
RENEWED PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
STARTING SATURDAY MORNING
------------------------------------------------------------
MAINLY LOW-END VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
HOVERING AROUND 3 KFT. OBSERVATIONS HAVE BOUNCED UP AND DOWN
WITH PERIODS OF SCT TO BKN AT 2.5-3.5 KFT AND EXPECT THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE. MIXING, ALBEIT SHALLOW, INTO A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET HAS ALLOWED FOR ELEVATED WIND GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS FOR ALL
SITES AS PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY VEERS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE EXIT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH, BUT SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES. MOST OF THESE SHOULD BRING LITTLE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION AS THE LOWEST LEVELS STILL HAVE NOT FULLY SATURATED,
BUT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND LOW- LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION STEEPENS LAPSE RATES, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE
IN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z SAVE ZZV WHERE PROBABILITY REMAINS LOWER
(30-40%).
SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING WITH
WIND VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS IS
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT,
BUT MVFR IS LIKELY TO BE THE THEME AS MENTIONED.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY AND
RETURNS RAIN TO MOST OF OUR AREA IN THE MORNING. ALONG WITH THIS
WILL COME A BETTER CHANCE FOR VIS RESTRICTION AND A
REINFORCEMENT OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH AN 80+% CHANCE AND 40-60% CHANCE, RESPECTIVELY. WIND
WILL BE LIGHTER ON SATURDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS VEERING FROM ESE
TO WSW BY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
WITH RAIN TURNING TO SNOW. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE
BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A CELLULAR NATURE RESULTING IN RAPID
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER/AK
AVIATION...MLB
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