295
FXUS61 KPBZ 100558
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1258 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BANDS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AS A REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
STRONG UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECTED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY HAVE INCREASED IN THE RIDGES, WITH EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY NEAR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WIND CONTINUES ON SUNDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN RETURNS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
2) SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SQUALLS ON SUNDAY
3) GUSTY WIND SUNDAY, WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV
4) COLDER WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN RETURNS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST TODAY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG A STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM S-N
TODAY AS THIS INITIAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A CROSSING UPPER JET SHOULD
ALSO ENHANCE ASCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SQUALLS ON SUNDAY
THE INITIAL SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH AND VORT MAX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
AND THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE
LAYER WITH A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE. A BAND OF SNOW, OR POSSIBLE
SQUALLS, SHOULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST CAMS ALSO
INDICATE THIS BANDING AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY, AND
SHOULD BE MAINLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
AND SQUALLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW, REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL HAZARDS. IN
ADDITION, WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, AND A
STEEP LAPSE RATE UNDER COLD ADVECTION.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRENCE CURRENTLY AT 20 PERCENT OR
LESS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
GUSTY WIND SUNDAY, WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, AND
A STEEP LAPSE RATE UNDER COLD ADVECTION. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING GUSTS FROM 45-55 MPH (WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.) THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD ALSO BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER IN THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
COLDER WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NEXT WEEK
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) ONGOING MVFR/IFR STRATUS NORTH OF PIT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
EARLY TO MID MORNING
2) WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
3) COLD FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT AND END OF PRECIP AFTER 00Z.
DRY OVERNIGHT, BUT FALLING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED SUNDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH OF PIT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING, THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL EROSION AND
SHIFT OF THE STRATUS DECK NORTHWARD AROUND 12Z WITH THE ONSET
OF SOUTH WINDS AND DAYTIME MIXING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR COULD
BE OBSERVED EVEN AT FKL/DUJ EARLY TO MID MORNING IF THIS
TRANSPIRES. ELSEWHERE, VFR IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY RETURNS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. LATEST
TIMING HAS THE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS REACHING MGW BY
12Z-14Z, PIT/AGC BY 14Z-16Z, AND FKL/DUJ AFTER 16Z. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES STILL HEAVILY FAVOR MVFR (80% OR GREATER), BUT
ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW NOTABLE CHANCES (30-50%) FOR IFR
ESPECIALLY AT FKL/DUJ. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS VEERING FROM ESE TO WSW BY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z, BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA. RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNDER COLD
ADVECTION. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA (ZZV) JUST BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
AS TEMPERATURES FALL. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES WITH A CELLULAR NATURE RESULTING IN RAPID (BUT BRIEF)
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK
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