170
FXUS61 KPBZ 101506
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1006 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BANDS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AS A REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
STRONG UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECTED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY HAVE INCREASED IN THE RIDGES, WITH EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY NEAR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WIND CONTINUES ON SUNDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN RETURNS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
2) SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SQUALLS ON SUNDAY
3) GUSTY WIND SUNDAY, WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV
4) COLDER WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN RETURNS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST TODAY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG A STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM S-N
TODAY AS THIS INITIAL WAVE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A CROSSING UPPER JET SHOULD
ALSO ENHANCE ASCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS
TIME, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SQUALLS ON SUNDAY
THE INITIAL SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG
UPPER TROUGH AND VORT MAX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
AND THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE
LAYER WITH A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE. A BAND OF SNOW, OR POSSIBLE
SQUALLS, SHOULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST CAMS ALSO
INDICATE THIS BANDING AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY, AND
SHOULD BE MAINLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING. ANY HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
AND SQUALLS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW, REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL HAZARDS. IN
ADDITION, WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, AND A
STEEP LAPSE RATE UNDER COLD ADVECTION.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRENCE CURRENTLY AT 20 PERCENT OR
LESS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
GUSTY WIND SUNDAY, WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV
WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, AND
A STEEP LAPSE RATE UNDER COLD ADVECTION. THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING GUSTS FROM 45-55 MPH (WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.) THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS COULD ALSO BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER IN THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
COLDER WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NEXT WEEK
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAIN IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
3) WESTERLY WIND SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SCATTERED
SNOW SUNDAY.
------------------------------------------------------------
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY RETURNS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS TO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70-80% PROBABILITY OF IFR CIGS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT INTERMITTENT IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH POST
FRONTAL SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN RESTRICTIONS RETURN AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...88
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