609
FXUS61 KPBZ 110603
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
103 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION, WITH 3-5 INCHES NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE AROUND AN INCH, THOUGH ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS OR SQUALLS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF INCHES IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, WITH A FEW SQUALLS ALSO POSSIBLE
2) GUSTY WIND TODAY, WITH 55 MPH GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY WV
3) RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANY REMAINING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO END EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING FRONT, IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 500MB JET AS WELL, WHICH WILL ENHANCE ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE THROUGH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE UNDER COLD ADVECTION, WITH SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS, OR HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS, AS THE FRONT CROSSES THIS
MORNING.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
AND CROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME, BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO VEER MORE TO THE
W-WNW, WITH SOME CONNECTION OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. LAKE WATER
TEMPERATURE TO 850 MB DELTA TS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 14-15
DEG C, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW
SHOWERS, THOUGH THESE VALUES ARE MORE TOWARD THE LOW/MARGINAL
SIDE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCTION. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS
ALSO EXPECTED, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WHERE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH
FLAT LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE ALSO
RAPIDLY DECREASES IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, AS A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT, TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND
MIXING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN GUSTY WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MODEL
PROBABILITIES AND BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER INDICATE GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 IN
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY WV WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY. WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WARMUP IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEPENING TROUGH. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SNOW CHANCES COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
FURTHER DEEPENS, AND A SURFACE WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS RETURN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
2) RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
------------------------------------------------------------
SCATTERED STRATOCU WITH CIGS AT LOW-END VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF SATURDAY EVENING'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
FOLLOWING THIS INITIAL WAVE, THOUGH MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
LINGER. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BANDS REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z
AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SNOW MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF
I-70 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REGARDING THE SEVERITY OF RESTRICTIONS THAT ACCOMPANY SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT MVFR/IFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT COULD
DROP AS LOW AS LIFR DURING INSTANCES OF HEAVIER RATES.
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE REINFORCING
COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AS WINDS GUST AS HIGH AS 30-35 KNOTS
DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE
AFTER 00Z EXCEPT IN THE RIDGES.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL RESTRICTIONS
RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ512-514.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK
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