540
FXUS61 KPBZ 141338
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
838 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BANDS AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW HAS
INCREASED FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE 1
TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF PA AND WV SEEING 2 TO 5 INCHES, WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN TODAY, CHANGING TO SNOW LATE.
2) SNOW TONIGHT, WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 5 PM THURSDAY. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY WV
3) MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES THEN CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DIGGING TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN OH BY EARLY AFTERNOON, REACHING WESTERN PA AND
NORTHERN WV FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
ASCENT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME JET ASSISTED ASCENT, WITH THE AREA NEAR THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
COULD ALSO SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES, WITH MARGINAL 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED SOON AFTER
FROPA, WITH OCCURRENCE IN THE PITTSBURGH AREA GENERALLY 5-8PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING SOON AFTER FROPA, WITH
SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT
REACHES MI/SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN PA ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT, MAINTAINING POST FRONTAL SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION. LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NW. STEADY
SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME
SNOW BANDS OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW STREAMLINES, SOME CONNECTION OFF OF BOTH LAKES HURON AND
ERIE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80, THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION IS
PROGGED TO VARY THROUGH THE PERIOD, KEEPING THE BANDS MOVING.
THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME CONNECTION OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE
WNW. WHILE NOT IDEAL FOR THE MOST EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION,
MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, AS THE STRONG UPPER
TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR 3 INCHES OF SNOW (WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA) ARE 30-50 PERCENT FOR THE I 80 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH. WHILE AN EVENTUAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
IN THIS AREA, PROBABILITIES AND CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WV AND PA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FOR 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH THE 3 INCH AMOUNTS IN ANY BANDING THAT WOULD OCCUR.
WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND -15 DEG TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
SNOW ENDING. ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (GENERALLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS OUT SIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.)
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH, AND REINFORCING COLD FRONTS, WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES AND COLD TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MUCH
OF THE TIME, WITH NEGATIVE VALUES AT NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 20S, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS.
AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR TO IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD, FALLING
DURING DAY WITH SUBTLE RISES POST FRONTAL PASSAGE.
2) RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AS COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST, WITH SNOW CHANCES DECAYING THURSDAY EVENING.
------------------------------------------------------------
JET-INDUCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CREATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH CIGS FALLING TOWARDS IFR
CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RAPID TRANSITION OF THE COLD
FRONT THEN INDUCES A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AMID
STRONG COLD ADVECTION. UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE COMBINED WITH
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT BANDS,
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DRY ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE
IMPROVE RESTRICTIONS AND END SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING.
INITIAL SNOWFALL RATES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER (NOT MUCH
HIGHER THAN 0.1"/HR) OUTSIDE OF THE WV HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
DELAY IN DEVELOPMENT OF MOISTURE/LIFT THROUGH DGZ. MORE IDEAL
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF SPURTS OF 0.25"/HR RATES WITH 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY;
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF UNIFIED LIFT WILL KEEP ACTIVITY MORE
SCATTERED AND SHOWERY (ON AND OFF SNOW LACKING LONGER DURATION)
THAT SHOULD MINIMIZE IMPACTS. A HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT BAND COULD
DEVELOP AROUND THURSDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN NORTHWEST PA BUT
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE TOO LOW FOR TAF
MENTION.
OUTLOOK...
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING, DRY ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW/RESTRICTIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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