720
FXUS61 KPBZ 141814
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
114 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDITION OF COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BASED ON LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS THAT RESULT IN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL BANDS
MAY ALSO INFLATE FORECASTED TOTALS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY
SNOW IS FAVORED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AMID COLD AIR INTRUSIONS
THAT RESULT IN WIND CHILLS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING IN CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LENDING TO INCREASED IMPACT POTENTIAL ALONG THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
2) UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF POTENTIALLY
TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON THAT COULD
LOCALLY INFLATE TOTALS (AND IMPACTS) BEYOND FORECASTED VALUES.
3) ACTIVE PATTERN BRING A CONSISTENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION STARTING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
4) COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOWLY DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE STRATIFORM RAIN PRODUCTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A NOTABLE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
12Z MODEL DATA TRENDS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
COLDER AIR MASS, MEANING THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION IS MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5PM-11PM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FUELED BY SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE OF THE NEWLY
DEVELOPED NEW ENGLAND SURFACE LOW, SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AND STRATIFORM DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE FUELED BY STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
POTENTIALLY TWO LAKE BANDS (MORE DETAILS IN KEY MESSAGE 2) THURSDAY
MORNING TAPERS OFF THROUGH THE EVENING AMID INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY ADVECTION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS EAST.
HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES AS NEITHER THE STRATIFORM (MORE LIMITED DGZ
GROWTH) NOR SHOWER ACTIVITY (GREATER DGZ GROWTH, BUT MORE LIMITED
LIFT/FOCUS FOR SNOW AT ONE LOCATION). TRENDS TOWARD SLIGHTLY HIGHER
QPF, AND THUS SNOW, AMOUNTS HAS OCCURRED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN PA (NOW WITHIN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY) AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST PA/NORTHEAST WV (PREVIOUSLY IN
ADVISORY). IMPACTS IN THESE REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEEN FROM A
COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATION CREATING SLICK ROADS AND LOWERED
VISIBILITY DURING PEAK RATES (WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25"-
0.5"/HR RANGE). ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING WIND GUSTS THURSDAY MAY
ALLOW FOR BRIEF WHITE-OUT LIKE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS NEAR TUCKER
COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY LOCATIONS, IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE
TIED TO THE MELTING OF FALLING SNOW AND/OR PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL
DAYTIME RAIN THAT FREEZES ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AS TEMPERATURE FALLS
INTO THE TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANALYSIS OF HIGH-RESOLUTION SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TWO (AND MAYBE THREE) LAKE-EFFECT BANDS THAT DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR. THE FIRST POTENTIAL
BAND MAY DEVELOP NW TO SE OVER FAR EASTERN OH FROM CARROLL COUNTY
(OH) TOWARDS WASHINGTON COUNTY (PA); PROBABILITIES INDICATE AROUND
30-50% CHANCE FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES PRIOR TO ENDING BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHIFTING BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS. THE SECOND POTENTIAL
BAND MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MERCER/VENANGO/FOREST
COUNTIES (PA) AND EXTEND TOWARDS CLARION COUNTY (PA); WHILE 2-5" MAY
STILL OCCUR WITHOUT THE BAND IN THESE AREAS, DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
MORE INTENSE BAND (WHICH COULD FEATURE RATES OF 1"/HR) MAY LEND TO
NARROW SWATHS IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE (3-5" IN NORTHERN CLARION).
DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT, DURATION AND INTENSITY
OF THESE FEATURES, ELEVATED HEADLINES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, BE AWARE THE SHORT-NOTICE ADVISORY/WARNINGS MAY BE
ISSUED IF IT BECOMES CLEARER ON THE OCCURRENCE OF THESE FEATURES AND
THEIR RESULTANT IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ON FRIDAY, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITH THIS TROUGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CURRENT ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1-2
INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS (2-3 INCHES) IN THE
NORTHERN WV RIDGES.
THIS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE STATIONARY TROUGH, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
WITH THE FIRST SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AVERAGE (IN THE MID-30S) WITH FRIDAY
NIGHT'S LOW AROUND 30F. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW.
THE STATIONARY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
WILL HELP TO KEEP THE COLD TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY BE IN THE 20S, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MUCH OF THE
TIME, WITH NEGATIVE VALUES AT NIGHT. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE COLDEST DAY WITH MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR TO IFR CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH TAF PERIOD, FALLING
DURING DAY WITH SUBTLE RISES POST FRONTAL PASSAGE.
2) RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW BETWEEN 20Z-02Z AS COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST, WITH SNOW CHANCES DECAYING THURSDAY EVENING.
------------------------------------------------------------
JET-INDUCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL CREATE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS FALLING
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR DROPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAPID
TRANSITION OF THE COLD FRONT THEN INDUCES A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
BETWEEN 21Z-04Z AMID STRONG COLD ADVECTION. UPPER TROUGH AXIS
PASSAGE COMBINED WITH COLD NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT BANDS, OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DRY ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE IMPROVE RESTRICTIONS AND END
SNOW BY THURSDAY EVENING.
INITIAL SNOWFALL RATES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER (NOT MUCH
HIGHER THAN 0.1"/HR) OUTSIDE OF THE WV HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
DELAY IN DEVELOPMENT OF MOISTURE/LIFT THROUGH DGZ. MORE IDEAL
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THAT MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF SPURTS OF 0.25"/HR RATES WITH 1 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY;
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF UNIFIED LIFT WILL KEEP ACTIVITY MORE
SCATTERED AND SHOWERY (ON AND OFF SNOW LACKING LONGER DURATION)
THAT SHOULD MINIMIZE IMPACTS. A HEAVIER LAKE-EFFECT BAND COULD
DEVELOP AROUND THURSDAY MORNING SOMEWHERE IN NORTHWEST PA BUT
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE TOO LOW FOR TAF
MENTION.
OUTLOOK...
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING, DRY ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW/RESTRICTIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/LUPO
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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