972
FXUS61 KPBZ 150613
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
113 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, THOUGH OVERALL
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. CONTINUED ALL
ADVISORIES AS IS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WIND
CHILLS HAVE LOWERED FURTHER WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED BANDS.
2) ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
3) VERY COLD NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FALLING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OH INTO
WESTERN PA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
LOW CROSSES, WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES, SO
THIS SHOULD LIMIT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 1-3 INCHES FOR MOST
AREAS.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INDICATES THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ERIE, WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONNECTION TO
LAKE HURON ACROSS NW PA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BANDING OF
THE SNOW AS WELL, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. EXPECTING TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, AND ALSO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
UPSLOPING IS EXPECTED WITH WNW WIND. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO
NOT OPTIMAL FOR THE MOST EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES, THOUGH
ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS THAT SEE NEAR 6 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF
I-80 IF A BAND PERSISTS OVER ONE AREA, THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED SHOULD THIS OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST, AND DRYING
OCCURS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
ALSO MAINTAINED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY WV WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
SHOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AROUND -15.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASCENT IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE,
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE OUT OF THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY
AS THIS SECOND TROUGH APPROACHES, AND THE LOW PULLS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, NBM PROBABILITIES
FAVOR A 1-3 INCH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OVER THE TWO DAY
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER
IMPACT COULD BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS
TIME, THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE
FORECAST. TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED IN THE TEENS.
THESE TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH THE WIND, COULD RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS, AND
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
------------------------------------------------------------
MVFR AND EVEN PERIODS OF VFR ARE POSSIBLE TO START THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE AS DRY AIR BEGINS WORKING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ANY IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED
ACCORDING TO HI-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AS WIDESPREAD MVFR
QUICKLY RETURNS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TERMINALS
COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A BRIEF UPTICK IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE NEAR AND
NORTH OF PIT. MEANWHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHALLOW
MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SNOW CHANCES GENERALLY DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH A
LOSS OF BUOYANCY, AS WELL AS A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WINDS WITH A
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE, MOST NOTABLY HLG AND
ZZV WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR THAT OCCURRING ARE AT OR ABOVE 80%
IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE, VFR MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING, DRY ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW/RESTRICTIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ510>514.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK
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