980
FXUS61 KPBZ 151645
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1145 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DEVELOPMENT OF A HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT BAND NEAR AND ALONG I-80
CAUSING CONFIRMED TRAVEL IMPACTS LED TO EXPANSION OF WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY INTO CLARION AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST PA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WIND
CHILLS HAVE LOWERED FURTHER WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED BANDS.
2) ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
3) VERY COLD NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OH INTO WESTERN PA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW CROSSES, WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE IS NOT IDEAL FOR
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES, SO THIS SHOULD LIMIT TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO 1-3 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INDICATES THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE ERIE, WITH AN ADDITIONAL CONNECTION TO
LAKE HURON ACROSS NW PA. THIS HAS LED TO ONE BAND DEVELOPING
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80 THAT HAS CAUSED CONFIRMED TRAVEL IMPACTS
FROM SLICK ROADS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE CLARION AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES (PA) FOCUSED ON THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF EACH WHERE THIS BAND IS LIKELY TO BE
PERSISTENT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
BY THE END OF THE DAY FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR, AND ALSO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING IS
EXPECTED WITH WNW WIND. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO NOT OPTIMAL
FOR THE MOST EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES, THOUGH ADVISORY LEVEL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS THAT SEE NEAR 6 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF I-80 IF A BAND
PERSISTS OVER ONE AREA, THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE LOCALIZED SHOULD
THIS OCCUR. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST, AND DRYING OCCURS IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
ALSO MAINTAINED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY WV WHERE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
SHOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AROUND -15.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASCENT IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE,
ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE OUT OF THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY
AS THIS SECOND TROUGH APPROACHES, AND THE LOW PULLS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, NBM PROBABILITIES
FAVOR A 1-3 INCH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OVER THE TWO DAY
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER
IMPACT COULD BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS
TIME, THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE
FORECAST. TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED IN THE TEENS.
THESE TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH THE WIND, COULD RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS, AND
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
2) BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR SNOW.
------------------------------------------------------------
WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED WHERE SKIES ARE BKN/OVC. THERE DOES
LOOK TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME TERMINALS TO BRIEFLY HAVE
SCATTERED/FEW CLOUDS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING
IN TEMPORARY VFR. SOME TERMINALS COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY
DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
BRIEF UPTICK IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF PIT.
MEANWHILE, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SNOW CHANCES GENERALLY DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH A
LOSS OF BUOYANCY, AS WELL AS A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE THAT WILL
CUT-OFF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO BE A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WINDS WITH A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR ARE LIKELY STARTING IN EASTERN OHIO
BEGINNING AROUND 21Z/22Z POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE, MOST NOTABLY HLG AND ZZV WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR THAT
OCCURRING ARE AT OR ABOVE 80% IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE,
VFR MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING, DRY ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING SNOW/RESTRICTIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ510>514.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...WM/FRAZIER/LUPO
AVIATION...CERMAK/MILCAREK
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