534
FXUS61 KPBZ 170016
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE RIDGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN OUR AREA.
2) POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALL-LIKE HEAVY SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF REGION
3) PROLONGED COLD SNAP STARTING SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
4) GUSTY TO STRONG WIND POSSIBLE MONDAY THAT MAY REQUIRE HIGH
TERRAIN WIND ADVISORIES
5) HIGHLY UNCERTAIN LONG RANGE OUTLOOK WITH ALL WIDE RANGE OF
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE RIDGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN OUR AREA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW. THIS
AFTERNOON, THERE ARE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE PART OF
OUR AREA, HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE CAUSING THE SNOW TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
BETTER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE AND
CELLULAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SNOW RATES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW: AROUND 0.5 IN/HR IN THE WV RIDGES AND UP TO 0.2-0.3
IN/HR ELSEWHERE. FOR THIS SYSTEM, THERE ARE SEPARATE SCENARIOS FOR
DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE REGION:
1) OUTSIDE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT 1-3" DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER
ASCENT/LIMITED SURFACE FORCING, AND MODEST 700MB WARMING THAT WILL
REDUCE SLRS. THERE WILL BE NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM.
2) SOUTHERN TIER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (10PM TONIGHT TO 7PM
SAT.)... WESTERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS INTO THE LAURELS WITH TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT.
PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 3 INCHES HAVE INCREASED IN EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTMORELAND COUNTY WHICH IS WHY THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THOSE LOCATIONS. HIGHER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED IN PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES AS WELL AS EASTERN FAYETTE
AND MONONGALIA COUNTIES.
3) NORTHERN TIER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (7PM TONIGHT TO 1AM
SUN.)... ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW
PA, LEADING TO 3-5" IN PORTIONS OF CLARION, FOREST, AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES. SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THERE AND ALSO LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTER THE LARGE-SCALE FORCED SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE USHERING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURE
ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF 925MB-850MB FRONTOGENESIS PLUS A
SATURATED DGZ (THOUGH LIFT WILL BE BELOW THIS LAYER) AND SBCAPE
VALUES AROUND 50 J/KG FAVORS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD PRODUCE SNOW SQUALL-LIKE
CONDITIONS WITH RATES UP TO 1"/HR (HREF PEAKS SUGGEST 20-50%
PROBABILITY OF THIS RATE ACHIEVED IN A GIVEN SHOWER). THE LACK
OF STRONG SURFACE COOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR MELTING BETWEEN
SHOWERS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWERS' ADDITIONS TO STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BUT COULD CREATE BRIEF, LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST OH INTO WESTERN PA. TIMING
OF IMPACT FAVORS DAYTIME HOURS, PEAKING BETWEEN 11AM-6PM.
KEY MESSAGE 3... PROLONGED COLD PERIOD
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SATURDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT COULD
EXTEND LONGER PENDING UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION. COLD CONDITIONS
PEAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR BEHIND ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE/UPPER WAVE; LOW
TEMPERATURE TUESDAY HAS AN 80-100% PROBABILITY OF BEING BELOW 10
DEGREES WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FAVORED TO SEE SUB-FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURE. THAT COLD
TEMPERATURE PLUS RESIDUAL BREEZY WINDS LENDS TO LIKELY NEED FOR
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES AS MINIMUM WIND CHILLS DROP
BELOW -10 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 4... STRONG WIND GUSTS MONDAY
DEEPER MIXING AND STRONG SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AREAWIDE GUSTY WINDS MONDAY BETWEEN 35-45MPH THAT COULD
REACH (OR EVEN EXCEED, FOR EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY) WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA PENDING A BIT MORE CERTAIN IN DEPTH OF CROSSING TROUGH
AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW GRADIENT.
KEY MESSAGE 5... HIGHLY UNCERTAIN LONG RANGE FORECAST
THOUGH TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS FAVORED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS FEATURES LARGE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN RIDGE BUILDING AND PERSISTENT TROUGHING FOR THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY MAX TEMPERATURE SPREADS BETWEEN
THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE EXCEEDING 10 DEGREES (WHICH CAN
DRASTICALLY ALTER POTENTIAL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
WINTER) FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY. PATIENCE WILL BE REQUIRED IN ASSESSING LONG
TERM TRENDS AND THE POTENTIAL WEATHER SCENARIOS AT PLAY BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS INCREASE BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z TONIGHT
WITH PASSING DISTURBANCE; EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN SNOW
2) SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES DIMINISH NEAR DAWN
3) BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW (SQUALLS) EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON
------------------------------------------------------------
DRY CONDITIONS WILL END AS A TROUGH MOVES IN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA, LOWERING
THE CIGS AND VIS. CLOUD CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM MVFR TO
IFR BETWEEN 03Z TO 06Z. WITH SNOW, VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 4SM TO 2SM OVERNIGHT.
AFTER 12Z, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END,
MOVING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
SNOW BANDS OR SQUALLS OVER CENTRAL OHIO, WHICH WILL THEN TRACK
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO ALL TERMINALS, ALERTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
QUICK BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW. THE RISK OF THESE BANDS IMPACTING
TERMINALS WILL DECREASE BETWEEN 22Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
RETURN SNOW CHANCES TO A NUMBER OF TERMINALS.
RIDGING JUST BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RETURN VFR CONDITIONS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ009-015-
016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/LUPO
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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