764
FXUS61 KPBZ 171853
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
153 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN MODERATE-TO-HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE
SQUALL-LIKE, QUICKLY DROPPING VISIBILITY AND PRODUCING BRIEFLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN LIGHT
UPSLOPE SNOW LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE RIDGES.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR TOTALS INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE/HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY
CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
2) ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ALONG POST FRONTAL
TROUGH ALONG PA AND WV RIDGES
3) PROLONGED COLD SNAP TO BEGIN THE WEEK. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
4) GUSTY TO STRONG WIND POSSIBLE MONDAY. WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... MODERATE/HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY
CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF 925MB-850MB FRONTOGENESIS PLUS A SATURATED DGZ
(THOUGH LIFT WILL BE BELOW THIS LAYER) AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
50 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AND ASSIST THE LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS PRESSING THROUGH CLEVELAND'S FORECAST AREA. THE HREF AND
HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES IF NOT A
BIT MORE. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PA COUNTIES AND MAY IMPACT I-79 AND I-80. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THE IMPACTS OF THESE
SNOW SQUALLS AND THE 3 WSW ADVISORIES OVER THE NORTH WILL REMAIN
OUT FOR AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE
COOLING AND POTENTIAL FOR MELTING BETWEEN SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS, BUT COULD CREATE BRIEF, LOCALIZED
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST OH INTO
WESTERN PA. TIMING OF IMPACT FAVORS DAYTIME HOURS, PEAKING
BETWEEN 1PM-6PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ADDITIONAL SNOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ALONG POST FRONTAL
TROUGH ALONG PA AND WV RIDGES
ALONG A POST FRONT TROUGH DEVELOPING TONIGHT, AS THE PARENT LOW
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ALONG THE TROUGH AND WITH A
PASSING 100 TO 120 KNOT JET STREAK, ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL LEAD
TO SOME SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE PA AND WV RIDGES. AT THIS
TIME, IT SEEMS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS. IN FACT, THE NBM STATISTICS GIVE A 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL
AMOUNT FOR THE WV RIDGES AND JUST SLIGHTLY NUDGING INTO THE
FAYETTE RIDGES. NO CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A ADVISORY AS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE LACKING ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT THE 75TH PERCENTILE DOES NOT PRODUCE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 3... PROLONGED COLD SNAP TO BEGIN THE WEEK
A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. COLD CONDITIONS PEAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE/UPPER WAVE; LOW TEMPERATURE TUESDAY HAS AN 80-100%
PROBABILITY OF BEING BELOW 10 DEGREES, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST PA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED TO SEE BELOW-ZERO
AIR TEMPERATURE. COMBINED WITH LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS,
BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING,
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -5 TO -20F RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NEED FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA, AND POSSIBILITY FOR EXTREME COLD WARNING IN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 4... STRONG WIND GUSTS MONDAY
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AMID DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING WILL PRODUCT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
35-45 MPH ON MONDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH (OR EXCEED IN EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY) WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE DEPTH OF THE CROSSING TROUGH, AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW/PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW (BANDED AND CELLULAR IN NATURE)
THIS AFTERNOON.
3) SNOW BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PA AND NORTHERN WV RIDGES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
------------------------------------------------------------
CURRENTLY, MOST TERMINALS ARE OBSERVING LOW MVFR. THE SECOND COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING MORE OF A BANDED SNOW SQUALL LINE.
CELLULAR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. KEEPING TEMPOS AND PROB30S FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE A
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF OBSERVING SNOW FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THESE SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE QUICK BURSTS OF
HEAVIER SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE RADAR AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER TIMING OF
THESE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.
FOLLOWING THE SECOND COLD FRONT PASSAGE, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY RISE TO VFR. STARTING NEAR MIDNIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A SNOW BAND TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PA AND NORTHERN
WV RIDGES. THIS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT LBE AND
MGW BY 08Z/09Z. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z/13Z. FOR MOST OF
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA, THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR PARTIAL
CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS COULD REMAIN MVFR UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
COLD UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. MONDAY IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS TO RETURN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ009-015-
016.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...LUPO
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