502
FXUS61 KPBZ 180034
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR SNOW SQUALLS HAS ENDED THIS EVENING. UPDATE TO
KEY MESSAGE #1. UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
2) PROLONGED COLD SNAP
3) GUSTY TO STRONG WIND POSSIBLE MONDAY. WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ADDITIONAL SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST UNTIL 5AM
SUNDAY. EXPECT A TRACE TO 1 INCH OF SNOW, WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS (UP TO 1 INCH) MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST
VIRGINIA. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW-20S, A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW COULD CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
ROADWAYS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PROLONGED COLD SNAP
COLD CONDITIONS PEAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AFTER A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE/UPPER WAVE; LOW TEMPERATURE TUESDAY HAS AN 80-100%
PROBABILITY OF BEING BELOW 10 DEGREES, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST PA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED TO SEE BELOW-ZERO
AIR TEMPERATURE. COMBINED WITH LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS,
BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING,
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -5 TO -20F RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NEED FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA, AND POSSIBILITY FOR EXTREME COLD WARNING IN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3... STRONG WIND GUSTS MONDAY
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AMID DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING WILL PRODUCT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
35-45 MPH ON MONDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH (OR EXCEED IN EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY) WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE DEPTH OF THE CROSSING TROUGH, AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW/PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR RETURNING FOR PART OF TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF SNOW
SQUALLS
2) AREA OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AFFECTING NORTHERN
WV AND PA RIDGES OVERNIGHT
3) DRY SUNDAY WITH GRADUALLY SCATTERING CLOUDS
------------------------------------------------------------
IN THE WAKE OF AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, VFR HAS
RETURNED TO THE AREA. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE IS
REINFORCING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 5-7 KFT CEILINGS
OVERSPREADING FROM THE WEST. ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE A SHIELD OF
LIGHT SNOW RIDING UP MAINLY NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO THE
PENNSYLVANIA RIDGES. THE WESTWARD EXTENT, AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
CAMS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS WITH SNOW IS FOR MGW
AND LBE WHERE PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
WITH IFR VISIBILITY FAVORED, SO HAVE INCLUDED SUCH PREVAILING
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AND THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ELSEWHERE
FARTHER WEST, HAVE KEPT PREVAILING VFR AND OPTED FOR A
PROB30/TEMPO WITH LESSER RESTRICTIONS AROUND THE SAME TIMEFRAME
WHERE SNOW IS LOWER CONFIDENCE BUT STILL POSSIBLE. WIND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS.
SNOW WILL EXIT AFTER DAWN TOMORROW AND GIVE WAY TO A DRY DAY
WITH GRADUALLY SCATTERING CLOUDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOOKS TO
KEEP A SCT TO BKN DECK IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY WITH VFR A GOOD BET (60-70%) SAVE LBE/DUJ WHERE
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MAY RETURN RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...MLB
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