181
FXUS61 KPBZ 180501
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1201 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR SNOW SQUALLS HAS ENDED THIS EVENING. UPDATE TO
KEY MESSAGE #1. UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
2) PROLONGED COLD SNAP
3) GUSTY TO STRONG WIND POSSIBLE MONDAY. WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ADDITIONAL SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST UNTIL 5AM
SUNDAY. EXPECT A TRACE TO 1 INCH OF SNOW, WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS (UP TO 1 INCH) MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST
VIRGINIA. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW-20S, A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW COULD CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
ROADWAYS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PROLONGED COLD SNAP
COLD CONDITIONS PEAK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AFTER A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE/UPPER WAVE; LOW TEMPERATURE TUESDAY HAS AN 80-100%
PROBABILITY OF BEING BELOW 10 DEGREES, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST PA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED TO SEE BELOW-ZERO
AIR TEMPERATURE. COMBINED WITH LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS,
BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING,
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -5 TO -20F RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NEED FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA, AND POSSIBILITY FOR EXTREME COLD WARNING IN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3... STRONG WIND GUSTS MONDAY
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AMID DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING WILL PRODUCT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
35-45 MPH ON MONDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH (OR EXCEED IN EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY) WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE DEPTH OF THE CROSSING TROUGH, AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW/PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR RETURNS THIS MORNING
2) DRY DURING THE DAY WITH GRADUALLY SCATTERING CLOUDS
------------------------------------------------------------
AS OF MIDNIGHT, RESTRICTIONS ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO PORTS EAST OF
KPIT WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
SNOW AT MGW AND LBE WHERE PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
TO RETURN WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL.
FARTHER WEST, VFR IS FAVORED PREDOMINANTLY, BUT HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPOS/PROB30S AT SEVERAL PORTS WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW/LOWER
CIGS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN LATEST WV
IMAGERY. WIND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
SNOW WILL EXIT AFTER DAWN TOMORROW AND GIVE WAY TO A DRY DAY
WITH GRADUALLY SCATTERING CLOUDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOOKS TO
KEEP A SCT TO BKN DECK IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY WITH VFR A GOOD BET (60-70%) SAVE LBE/DUJ WHERE
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MAY RETURN RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...MLB/88
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