963
FXUS61 KPBZ 181011
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
511 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY SUNDAY
2) PROLONGED COLD SNAP AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY
MORNING
3) WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY WITH
GUSTY TO STRONG WIND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ADDITIONAL SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
NEAR SUNRISE. GENERALLY 1 TO AN ISOLATED 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE, A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 20F, A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
COULD CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PROLONGED COLD SNAP AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SATURDAY WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE LOW/MID
20S. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND YET ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE/UPPER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING HAVE AN
80-100% CHANCE OF BEING BELOW 10 DEGREES, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST PA AT A 75% CHANCE OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES. COMBINED
WITH LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS, BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED REGION-WIDE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING, BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE -5 TO -20F RANGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED
FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AREAWIDE, AND POSSIBILITY FOR
EXTREME COLD WARNING IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BRIEFLY MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MONDAY WITH GUSTY TO STRONG WIND
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AMID DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 35-45 MPH ON MONDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH (OR EXCEED IN
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY) WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE DEPTH OF THE CROSSING TROUGH, AND STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW/PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR RETURNS THIS KPIT AND WEST
2) DRY DURING THE DAY
3) RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY MORNING
------------------------------------------------------------
RESTRICTIONS ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO PORTS KPIT AND EAST WITH
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS IN
SNOW. FARTHER WEST, VFR IS MORE LIKELY THIS MORNING AS LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS <50% CHANCE OF CIGS <3KFT. SNOW WILL
EXIT EARLY THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO A DRY DAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN. CIGS SHOULD
CREEP EAST, BUT KMGW/KLBE/KDUJ HREF PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS
REMAIN BETWEEN 40-50% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KEPT PORTS VFR FOR
NOW BASED OFF LATEST HI-RES FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY, AND PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON SLIGHTLY WITH
INCREASED MIXING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD EARLIER IN THE EVENING WHERE CIGS LIFT OR CLOUDS SCATTER
MORE, BEFORE RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW POTENTIAL RETURN MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MAY RETURN RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...88
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