262
FXUS61 KPBZ 181652
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1152 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY SUNDAY
2) PROLONGED COLD SNAP AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY
MORNING
3) WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY WITH
GUSTY TO STRONG WIND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ADDITIONAL SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
NEAR SUNRISE. GENERALLY 1 TO AN ISOLATED 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE, A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 20F, A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
COULD CREATE SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PROLONGED COLD SNAP AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SATURDAY WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE LOW/MID
20S. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND YET ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE/UPPER WAVE ON MONDAY WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING HAVE AN
80-100% CHANCE OF BEING BELOW 10 DEGREES, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST PA AT A 75% CHANCE OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES. COMBINED
WITH LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS, BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED REGION-WIDE FOR MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING, BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE -5 TO -20F RANGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED
FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AREAWIDE, AND POSSIBILITY FOR
EXTREME COLD WARNING IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BRIEFLY MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MONDAY WITH GUSTY TO STRONG WIND
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AMID DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 35-45 MPH ON MONDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH (OR EXCEED IN
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY) WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE DEPTH OF THE CROSSING TROUGH, AND STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW/PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON
2) VFR THIS EVENING
3) RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW RETURN OVERNIGHT
4) GUSTY WIND ON MONDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MVFR TO IFR IN SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOULD
TRANSITION INTO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION.
MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH BRIEF IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY AFTER
FROPA, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING. EXPECT WSW
GUSTS TO 30KT THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
CIG RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WSW WIND ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING IN COLD WRLY FLOW. VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW AND
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM
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